Premier League Stats, 1st November: Tottenham v Liverpool

Premier League / Bettorlogic / 30 October 2008 / Leave a Comment

What are the chances of Redknapp squeezing more points out of one of the Premier League's high-fliers? Bettorlogic break down the numbers.

Match Odds
With four points from his first two games, a win here could see Harry Redknapp lift Spurs out of the relegation zone in under a week. They face a tough task with the visit of the league leaders, who beat Redknapp's former charges in another close game (only two of Liverpool's 16 matches this season have been decided by more than a goal) in mid-week.

In fact, since their FA Cup shock at the hands of Barnsley, the Reds have lost only once in 35 matches in all competitions (3-0 at Old Trafford in March). As well as this run of form they have lost just four times (W19-D8-L4) in the league away to teams in the bottom half in the last three years (W10-D5-L12 v top-half teams by comparison). They have never lost to Spurs in Benitez's time at the club, all of which makes a [3.7] Spurs win price look a bit short.

Juande Ramos was brought in to improve Spurs' performances against the Big Four but, Carling Cup victory aside, W0-D3-L3 in the league was no significant improvement on the rest of Levy's tenure (W4-D16-L35). Since 2004/05 they have just one win in 16 games at White Hart Lane in the league against the Big Four, losing over half of the matches (W1-D6-L9).

Correct score
In the last four seasons there has been no particularly prevalent score in Spurs' home matches against the Big Four, with 1-1 and 0-2 (both 3/16) the most common.

Although the result has been reasonably consistent (W9-D4-L1), Liverpool's matches at bottom-half teams over the same period have shown no dominant score, with the 0-2 win the most common (3/14). There may be a touch of value in 0-2 at [9.4] but there seems nothing strong in the market.

HT/FT
Xabi Alonso's goal at Stamford Bridge represents Liverpool's only half-time lead in their last 13 league matches and they have had only six in their 20 games at non-Big Four sides since the start of last season, although the W/W (6/20 - all against bottom-half sides) is still the most common result in this sample, followed by the D/W and D/D (both 4/20).

Spurs have had only two half-time leads in their last 11 home league matches, although they have a history of performing a little better in the first half (F7-A12 since 04/05) at home against the Big Four than in the second (F10-A20). The L/L is the most common result (6/16) in those games, although it has occurred in just three of the last 11 and none of the last five.
Liverpool/Liverpool seems most likely but at around [3.5] looks priced in.

Spurs clean sheet
Spurs have managed one clean sheet in their last 23 at home to the Big Four in the league (albeit against Liverpool), while Liverpool have failed to score in only two of their 14 at bottom-half teams since the start of last season, so 'No' ([1.25]) is the call here.

Liverpool clean sheet
The Reds have kept their opponents off the score sheet in over half (11/20) of their games at non-Big Four sides - including in eight of 14 against teams in the bottom half. Spurs have failed to score in three of their last six at the Lane (one of which was against Liverpool), having netted in 24 straight prior to that. Six goals in Redknapp's first two games suggests they may be back on scoring form. Still, in the past four seasons, they have failed to score in nearly half (7/16) at home to the Big Four, so the Liverpool clean sheet has some appeal at [3.05].