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Premier League Final Day Betting: Derby County v Reading

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Reading have been in awful form of late, but on paper they have the easiest game on this thrilling last day of the season. Richard Walker looks at their chances of survival.

With just one win from their last eight matches, Reading have got themselves in such a pickle that Premier League survival is now out of their own hands.

It's just as well they've got Derby to play really, for although the Rams won't want to sign off with a 29th defeat of a record-breakingly poor campaign. If the Royals can't muster even a point at Pride Park then surely they don't deserve even the chance of finishing above the dreaded dotted line.

Reading manager Steve Coppell acknowledged SSS (Second Season Syndrome) before this term kicked off but went on to wonder if it really could be applicable at his club. He has had his answer in emphatic style.

If we forgive the 66 goals they've shipped this season, the problems would equally appear to lie at the other end of the table with only 37 goals scored - and that's what may prove crucial as they look to pierce the division's leakiest defence (a mighty 85 conceded, 39 of which have been at Pride Park).

The Match Odds tell me Betfair layers and punters think Reading are pretty certain winners; they're [1.68] to back for victory, the draw's a [4.2] chance while, to record their second win of a thoroughly miserable campaign which has highlighted how harsh the Premier League can be, Derby can be backed to win at home at odds of [5.8].

I would, without hesitation, lay County at [5.9] since even if mis-firing Reading don't get it right, a draw could conceivably be sufficient if good news filters through from both St. Andrew's - where Birmingham must beat Blackburn - and from Fratton Park that Portsmouth are making light work of Fulham.

The in-game machinations of players and managers is much more apparent in recent years - with games taking on a whole new dimension after news from elsewhere filters through. And apart from all that, are Derby really good enough to actually win another match?

County have a rake of loaned-out squad players returning, while long-term injury absentee Glen Little is again a 50:50 chance for Coppell's strugglers. A certain Royals' starter who seems to chip in with his share is Stephen Hunt - and the straggly-haired winger is my tip in the To Score list at around [5.0]. Perhaps someone in a Rams' shirt will find the net but I have neither the inclination nor the confidence in any single individual to highlight them in this preview.

The Over/Under 2.5 goals market is a tough call. Like I said, if Reading get in front they'll batten down the hatches, particularly if good news is received from the south coast. I'm leaning towards Unders at [2.18] to back but I can equally see a few goals going in if Derby have the temerity to notch first. Over 2.5 goals is priced at [1.83] if you're better than me at making your mind up on this one!

My overall sixth sense is for a 1-0 Reading victory. That's a [12.0] chance in the Correct Score list and can be complemented by an investment, at odds of [2.54], with a punt on a Winning Margin of one goal - this caters neatly for an unlikely home success.

Given the importance of the game for the Royals - and the cagey way they sometimes approach matters - I think the Draw in the Half Time result market is a nice bet at odds of [2.54] to back. Remember, while it looks as though Reading must win, a draw for them allied to a Pompey victory and Blues failing to win keeps them up so they've no reason to bomb out of the blocks. So perhaps this can be lined up alongside the backing a Reading clean sheet at odds of [2.42].

There's no doubt all that the visitors will be fired up for this one. They did so well last season yet, just like examples before them (Ipswich are the team that stick in my mind - UEFA Cup spot one year, relegated the next), it ain't easy to repeat the feat in the toughest of all domestic competitions.

Can Reading now do the same at Fulham and Birmingham's expense? They have the easiest of the three fixtures so might only have themselves to blame come crunch time.