Premier League Betting: Why Gunners need Van Persie fit and firing

Premier League / Andrew Atherley / 18 November 2009 / Leave a Comment

"In the past two and a quarter seasons, Arsenal’s win rate without Van Persie is only a touch above 50%, which makes odds of [1.69] for an Arsenal win on Saturday look too short."

Arsenal fans will be hoping that placenta works its magic on Robin Van Persie's ankle, and Betfair punters should be keeping a close eye on the striker's progress too, says Andrew Atherley.

Robin Van Persie has been Arsenal's star performer this season, with his seven league goals a clear sign that he is back to his best. His injury-free start to the season came to an end when he damaged ankle ligaments on international duty for Holland, and the speed of his return to action could have a major bearing on Arsenal's performance, both in the short and long term.

Since the start of the 2007-08 season, Arsenal have averaged 2.15 points with Van Persie in their starting line-up and exactly two points without him. There is a more notable difference, however, in games where Van Persie has started and scored - the points average rises to 2.38.

That allows us to make a good estimate of how Arsenal would perform if Van Persie was able to play a full season and scored in half of their games (as he has on average since the start of 2007-08). Using the higher average, Arsenal could expect 45 points from the games in which Van Persie scored and 38 points from his non-scoring games.

Arsenal, then, could accumulate 83 points, which would have been good enough for a second-place finish in three of the past five seasons and for third place at least in each of those seasons.

That may leave them a bit short in the title race, especially with Chelsea setting such a fast pace, at current odds of [4.8] to back in the Winner 2009/10 market. But they are starting to look a banker in the Top Three Finish market, at [1.36], and interestingly are odds-against in the Top Two Finish market at [2.06]. Arsenal look a decent chance in that market - as long as Van Persie is fit and firing again soon.

As for the short term, Arsenal's trip to Sunderland on Saturday looks tricky without Van Persie. Not only are Sunderland much improved under Steve Bruce, but a key stat is that in the past two and a quarter seasons Arsenal's win rate without Van Persie is only a touch above 50%, which makes odds of [1.69] to back for an Arsenal win on Saturday look too short.

Arsenal still don't lose many games and the stats point to a draw, which is [3.95] to back.

Something has to give on Saturday in Birmingham v Fulham if there is a goal, because those teams are two of just three in the Premier League (along with Manchester United) that have a perfect record when scoring the opening goal this season.

Both teams have won three out of three from that position, which will raise interest in backing the team that scores first on Saturday, especially as the pre-match odds have plenty of room for movement - Birmingham are [2.58] to back for the win and Fulham are [3.05].

A key factor that indicates the early figures are not a blip is that both Fulham and Birmingham have mean defences - only Chelsea, Manchester United and Aston Villa have conceded fewer goals this season - and that gives them the capacity to defend a lead.

Birmingham, in their first season back in the Premier League, may continue to be a good team to follow when they score first, but we already know that Fulham have strong long-term figures.
Since Roy Hodgson took charge at Craven Cottage in December 2007, Fulham have scored first in 25 league games and won 20, which is a high 80% success rate.