Premier League Betting: Why Arsenal can win the title

Premier League / Andrew Atherley / 10 March 2010 / Leave a Comment

"On form, Arsenal have an excellent chance and probably should be shorter than their current [3.8] in the Premier League Winner 2009/10 market."

They may have been written off several times this season but Arsenal are now two points off the Premier League summit with an easier run-in than their title rivals. Andrew Atherley discusses the Gunners' chances.

Arsenal can win the Premier League and here's why: most of their tough games are behind them and they now have the easiest run-in of the three title contenders.

Nerve will be an important factor and how Arsene Wenger's young squad stand up to the pressure remains an unknown at the business end of the season, but on form they have an excellent chance and probably should be shorter than their current [3.8] in the Premier League Winner 2009/10 market. There is little to split Manchester United at [2.68] and Chelsea at [2.76], but those teams have tougher run-ins.

Arsenal have been written off several times this season, mostly after poor results against their title rivals, but they have no more games to play against fellow big four teams and only two against sides from the top seven. That's good news for them, because they have performed at a significantly lower level in that category than United and Chelsea.

What has kept Arsenal in contention is their excellent record against the other 13 teams in the division outside the top seven, where they have averaged 2.53 points per game - ahead of United's 2.38 and Chelsea's 2.30. Arsenal have seven more games of that type to come, whereas Chelsea have six and United just five.

At that rate of points accumulation, and taking into account their lower average against top-seven teams (they still have to visit Tottenham and host Manchester City), Arsenal can be expected to reach 81 points by the end of the season.

Chelsea will get to 82 points if they maintain their current averages and United will finish level with Arsenal on 81. That puts the title race much closer than the odds indicate, with Arsenal more serious contenders than most people still give them credit for, and another crucial factor that could work in Arsenal's favour is the April 3 showdown between Manchester United and Chelsea, where one or both of their rivals will drop points.

Chelsea also have to visit Liverpool and Tottenham, as well as playing Aston Villa at home, while United's other tough run-in games include the away Manchester derby and home fixtures against Liverpool and Tottenham.

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The headline stats about Blackburn's away form are clear to everyone by now: just six points from a possible 42, with 10 defeats out of 14. Serial losers on the road tend to have high-scoring games and it is no surprise that Burnley, Hull and Blackburn - the worst three away sides in the Premier League - also lead the way for away games with over 2.5 goals. Collectively, two-thirds of their away games have had over 2.5 goals.

It is always worth digging a little deeper with strong stats like those, and Blackburn's goals figures on the road are interesting, particularly in the context of Saturday's visit to Tottenham. Their average for away games with over 2.5 goals is 64% (nine out of 14) and that is a continuation of the pattern from last season, when they had 68% (13 out of 19) over 2.5 goals. Since Sam Allardyce took charge halfway through last season, they have had 63% over 2.5 goals and the most eyecatching aspect is that the vast proportion of high-scoring games has been against top-half teams.

Under Allardyce, 12 of Blackburn's 14 visits to top-half teams have had over 2.5 goals (86%), which makes [1.94] to back for over 2.5 goals in Tottenham v Blackburn an attractive proposition.

Along with Blackburn, the remaining away games for Burnley and Hull are well worth considering for over 2.5 goals, especially against much stronger opposition.