Premier League Betting: Top marks to punters who spotted United's tough start

Premier League / Andrew Atherley / 12 November 2008 / Leave a Comment

Sir Alex Ferguson's complaints about his side's schedule are, at least in part, justified says Andrew Atherley. But points means prizes and, resigned as he is to chasing, the boss must be aware that the great title-winning catch-ups of the 90s are a thing of the past.

The strain of the title race was clearly starting to tell on Sir Alex Ferguson in the aftermath of Manchester United's defeat at Arsenal, as he launched an attack on how his club was being "handicapped" by a tough fixture list.

Ferguson's grievance was twofold: firstly, that United had been handed away games in the Premier League after all four rounds of the Champions League so far and, secondly: "We have the top ten teams from last season away from home in the first half of the season".

The first complaint is justified and the difficulty has been increased by the fact that two of those four away games after Champions League fixtures have been at Chelsea and Arsenal. They face two more away games (at Manchester City and Tottenham) following their two remaining Champions League group matches, though at least Ferguson should be able to rest some players in the European games by then.

Fergie's second gripe about the fixture list is slightly less accurate - their first eight away games are all against teams that finished in the top nine, but they do not play at West Ham (10th last season) until February 7 - United's 13th away game of the season.

He does not appear to be taking into account that some of last season's top-half teams are under-performing this season and may not reach that level again - he can't complain too much about last month's visits to Blackburn (a 2-0 win) and Everton (1-1), whose home form has been below par.

Overall, though, Ferguson has a point, and he didn't even mention the extra 'handicap' United face when they travel to Japan in December for the Fifa Club World Cup. Full marks to any sharp-eyed punters who spotted the degree of difficulty in United's early fixture list before the season started. Having been contesting favouritism with Chelsea at the start of the season, United are out to [4.4] second favourites, with Chelsea looking increasingly solid at [1.9] and there is potential for the favourites to harden further in the coming weeks.

By the end of 2008, United will have played only 18 of their Premier League fixtures, leaving them with a heavy programme in the second half of the season with cup competitions and the defence of the Champions League adding to the workload.

Ferguson is resigned to playing catch-up in the new year. The best points total United can have after 18 games is 42, and that's only if they win their next seven in a row, while Chelsea and Liverpool are on course for 43 or 44 points after 18 games if they maintain their current pace.

United's probable deficit is likely to be greater still, as both Chelsea and Liverpool will have played 20 games by the end of 2008, which could exaggerate their advantage while at the same time adding to the pressure on United to make up ground fast.

United will do well to reach 40 points after 18 games, and in recent seasons that has been the bare minimum for a title-winning push. The last five champions all had 42-plus points at that stage, and just two of the last nine champions have fallen below 40 points after 18 games. Of those who fell short, the biggest deficit on the leaders at that stage was three points.

From there, it is possible to make a stab at where the winning line might be. Chelsea finished second on 85 points last season and on current form that is the minimum they are likely to get this time; at the moment they are on course for 92 points. United's 87 points last season was the lowest winning total of the past five seasons, with the five-year average coming in at 90.4, so anything less than the high 80s is likely to be insufficient.

If United reach 40 points after 18 games, and then make the most of their easier fixture list in the second half of the season they will end up on 89.

There are big ifs in that calculation, however, and Ferguson must be aware that the come-from-behind title-winning surges of the 1990s are a relic of the past - it is 10 years since a team was five points or more behind a title rival after 18 games and recovered to take the crown.

United's current odds in the Premier League Points market - [80.0] to sell and [83.0] to buy - look a more realistic estimate of their finishing range. If that is right, United's title-winning prospects are even slimmer than their current back odds of [4.4] indicate, as fewer than 87 points has been good enough for first place in just three of the past 10 seasons.

What's more, in the past four seasons the runner-up has gained at least 83 points, which throws into some doubt a top-two finish for United, who are currently [1.68] to back and [1.74] to lay in the Top 2 Finish market.

Punters who share Ferguson's pessimism might latch on to Liverpool as the most serious challengers to Chelsea. Liverpool are third favourites in the Premier League Winner market at [5.6] and are [2.36] to back in the Top 2 Finish market. Their odds in the latter market will be more closely linked to United's performance, and to Arsenal's, but could offer some value at this stage.