Premier League Betting Preview: Saturday 3pm kick-offs

Premier League / Mike Norman / 01 May 2009 / Leave a Comment

A West London derby, Hughes and Campbell face their old clubs and Spurs look to get back on track after their trauma at Old Trafford - Mike Norman assesses Saturday's 3 o'clock kick-offs. Best Bet: Back Arsenal to beat Portsmouth @ [2.4].

Chelsea [1.58] v Fulham [8.4]; The Draw [3.95]

Regardless of whether Chelsea accept that the Premier League title has gone, I'd still expect them to field a relatively strong side against West London rivals Fulham. The Cottagers haven't won at Stamford Bridge for nearly 30 years, and I don't expect that stat to change today.

For two teams that have been strong defensively this season, the [1.86] about Under 2.5 Goals seems a fair price, but recent history suggests Over 2.5 Goals (available to back at [2.12] is the way to play. The last 10 Premier League games between these two sides have averaged 3.1 goals per game, whilst the last five at Stamford Bridge have averaged 3.2 per game.

Man City [2.02] v Blackburn [4.3]; The Draw [3.55]

I was in Benidorm last weekend, which is just as well as it must have snowed in England when Manchester City finally recorded just their second away win in the Premier League. City are very strong at home however, and I can't seem them losing to a Blackburn side that are without David Dunn, Roque Santa Cruz and Jason Roberts.

With Blackburn's attacking prowess significantly reduced, I like the look of the Yes option to a Man City Clean Sheet - available to back at [2.94]. Correct Scores of 2-0 [11.5] and 3-0 [21.0] to City are also worth an interest at rewarding odds.

Portsmouth [3.4] v Arsenal [2.4]; The Draw [3.35]

Expect wholesale changes in the Arsenal team ahead of their return fixture with Manchester United in the Champions League. But whatever team Arsene Wenger puts out (and it will almost certainly include the brilliant Andrei Arshavin) I think the expectation on Portsmouth to win will be too much and the [2.4] about a Gunners victory is too good to miss.

The fact that Pompey haven't beaten Arsenal for over half a century adds further confidence to an away victory, as does Pompey's record against the top four clubs this season - played seven, lost seven (home and away).

Recommended bets therefore are Arsenal/Arsenal [4.1] in the Half Time/Full Time market, and Arshavin to be the First Goalscorer (will be available to back at around the [9.0] mark once the market matures) and To Score at anytime [3.2].

Stoke [2.42] v West Ham [3.35]; The Draw [3.35]

I fancy Stoke to win this one. They have an impressive home record, are expected to name James Beattie in the starting line-up (having missed the defeat to Fulham) and will probably play with a lot less pressure now that their Premier League status is almost certainly secured.

As I've pointed out before though, The Potters don't score many (only once this season have they scored three in a game) so Correct Scores of 1-0 ([8.0]) and 2-0 ([13.0]) are probably the safest ways to play. Under 2.5 Goals is just [1.72] to back, but is a far more likely outcome than Over 2.5 Goals (available to back at [2.34]) in my opinion.

Tottenham [1.49] v West Brom [8.4]; The Draw [4.5]

It's not much more than a hunch, but I fancy Spurs to slip up here. Whether it's by drawing or losing I'm not so sure, so a lay on Tottenham at [1.51] is my advice. I just feel West Brom have accepted they are going down, and now that they have - as last week's win over Sunderland showed - the pressure is off and individual performances have improved.

I can see the Baggies soaking up a lot of pressure and looking to hit Tottenham on the break. At big odds, Draw/Draw ([7.4]) and Draw/West Brom ([20.0]) in the Half Time/Full Time market, and 0-0 ([16.0]) and 0-1 ([27.0]) in the Correct Score market are worth considering to split stakes. I could be completely wrong of course, but this game is all about opinions and taking a chance from time to time.

Wigan [2.18] v Bolton [4.0]; The Draw [3.35]

This game goes down as the day's biggest dead rubber, and one that I have very little interest in. Granted, both teams might not treat it as such and until they are mathematically safe will probably go all out for victory. But even then, I couldn't call the result.

The Draw is the obvious selection then at [3.35], but try a few Correct Score bets on 1-1 and 2-2 - available to back at [7.2] and [19.5] respectively. Egyptian compatriots Mido and Amr Zaki will head the First Goalscorer market (at around [8.0] once it matures) but I'm a huge Kevin Davies fan and would take a chance on the Bolton forward at around [10.0].