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Premier League Betting: Low priced Torres is a risk on the road

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Andrew Atherley looks at Fernando Torres' scoring record and reaches some suprising conclusions.

Something unusual happened at Sunderland on the opening day of the Premier League season: Fernando Torres scored. Not only that, but El Nino rewarded punters who had backed him to be first goalscorer, as his 83rd-minute strike was the only goal of the game to give Liverpool a 1-0 win.

Not so unusual, you might think, and yet it was a rare away goal for Torres in Liverpool colours. The Spain striker was a roaring success in his first season with the Reds, finishing second to Cristiano Ronaldo in the scoring charts with 24 goals, but 21 of those league goals were scored at Anfield and six of the seven times he registered as first goalscorer came in home games.

Torres' three away goals were scored at Tottenham, Middlesbrough and Derby, and the only time he scored the first goal on the road was against Derby, by some distance the worst team to have (dis)graced the Premier League.

All of which made it quite surprising that Torres was around [2.4] to score at Sunderland in the first match of the new season and [6.0] to be first goalscorer. Although backers collected on that occasion, they may be playing with fire if they expect Torres to justify favouritism on the road on a regular basis.

Torres made 12 away starts for Liverpool last season for his three goals, which meant that he scored in a quarter of those games and was first scorer only once, and that could hardly compare with his incredible home strike-rate of scoring in 14 of his 17 starts (five times as first scorer).

A comparison of his home/away goals-per-minute ratio further illustrates the difference in his strike-rate. At home he scored a goal per 71 minutes on the pitch last season, while on the road it was a goal every 356 minutes - just over five times his home ratio. In other words, it took him almost four completed matches to score each away goal.

Another concern about Torres' scoring rate on the road is that he has not proved conclusively that he can score against the best home defences. The three league goals he scored on his travels last season all came against teams that finished in the bottom half of the table, and this season's opening strike at Sunderland was against the team that finished sixth-bottom last season.

Derby and Tottenham, moreover, had the two leakiest defences at home last season, while Middlesbrough ranked joint-seventh in that category. All three teams - as well as Sunderland - also ranked low for home clean sheets last season, Derby keeping only two in 19 games and Tottenham, Boro and Sunderland five apiece.

In his appearances against home defences ranked in the Premier League top 10 last season, meanwhile, Torres failed to score in 374 minutes of play.

Like the rest of the Liverpool team, Torres' best away form came in the Champions League. He scored in three of his five away starts in that competition, against Marseille, Inter Milan and Chelsea, and perhaps that was a sign not simply of his class but that he performed better for being given a regular place in the Champions League line-up, rather than being rotated in the Premier League.

Yet his figures still show a weakness in his game, especially against top defences, and not just since he joined Liverpool. In his final season with Atletico Madrid, Torres scored in five of his 17 away starts and, although it was notable that he was first goalscorer on all five occasions, two of his opening goals were from the penalty spot - an avenue not usually open to him at Liverpool.

On top of that, and in common with his figures for Liverpool, three of the five teams Torres scored against on the road that season finished in the bottom six of the Primera Liga, and four of the five featured among the worst six home defences.

For all his class, then, Torres remains a risk at short odds in the scoring markets when Liverpool go on their travels, particularly against the stronger defences. Laying him to score and to be first scorer in road games was a route to profit last season and as yet there is no evidence that layers should ease off him now, especially with Liverpool's next four league away games being at Aston Villa, Everton, Manchester City and Chelsea.