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Premier League Final Day Betting: Chelsea v Bolton

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Mike Norman analyses Chelsea's final game of the season at home to Bolton. On paper, it's not much of a test for them. But with the Trotters fighting for their Premier League status, anything can happen.

You've got to hand it to Chelsea. A few months back, when Arsenal were surrendering their own claim to be league champions, you would have got decent odds about the Premiership title race going to the final Sunday of the season. But to the final Sunday it is going, and if Chelsea record a better result than Manchester United, then it will be they, and not their Champions League opponents, who reclaim the title.

For the record I think both Chelsea and Manchester United will win on Sunday, though purely based on recent history (which I believe is a decent tool to use), I don't concur with the thinking that Chelsea have the easier fixture. United have a 100% record against Wigan, scoring 20 goals and conceding just three in the six times they've faced each other. Chelsea meanwhile have struggled against Bolton at Stamford Bridge in recent years, winning just one of their last four fixtures, drawing two, and losing the other.

Furthermore, Wigan went on their best run of home form from February onwards, when their pitch was described as the worst in the Premiership, and Steve Bruce's men coped with it better than most. So what have they done for the visit of the current Champions of England, the team that likes to get the ball on the floor and play attractive football? That's right, they've got the JJB pitch in the best shape it's ever been, described as a pitch that will suit............ you've guessed it........ attractive football on the floor! It may suit Wigan, but it will suit United a damned sight more!

Manchester United are [1.25] to still be Champions come Sunday evening, while you can have [4.9] about Chelsea getting their hands back on the Premiership trophy.

I've been one of Chelsea's harshest critics for the way they've played this season, but there is no doubting that they are brilliant defensively and can get results when needed. Against Newcastle on Monday, they were dreadful for the first period when once again the front three combination of Malouda, Drogba and Anelka simply failed to sparkle. A half-time rollicking and an eventual change of formation (when 1-0 up) saw the Blues run out comfortable winners in the end, but if they start with the same line-up against Bolton, then I will be backing the half-time score to be 0-0 at odds of [3.8].

However, it's a 1.01 shot that Avram Grant will field a formation similar to the one that finished the game against Newcastle, and for that reason I can see a comfortable home victory in the offering. There is no doubt that Chelsea will want to get an early goal (and I think they will) so that word gets to the JJB that they are in front, and in hope that United get a bit edgy. Backing Chelsea to lead at 'Half-Time/Full-Time' is my recommendation at [1.55].

If you prefer to just play in the 'Match Odds' market then Chelsea are huge favourites at [1.16], the draw being on offer at [9.6], and a shock Bolton win can be backed at odds of [24]. Incidentally, that early goal I fancy can be backed at [4.2] for '0-10 Minutes' or at [4.5] for '11-20 Minutes'.

Chelsea (reported again to have a fully fit squad to choose from) will have fond memories of their 2-0 victory over Bolton in 2005 that saw them crowned Premiership Champions, but I have a feeling they will surpass that scoreline on Sunday as they try to put the result beyond doubt as quickly as possible. A '3-0' home victory can be backed at [7.6], while I'm more than happy to take the [3.85] about 'Any Unquoted' score, which covers me for any scoreline that has a number '4' or higher in it.

Chelsea have been free scoring quite a few times this season, netting four or more goals on no less than five occasions in the Premiership - this bringing into play 'Over 3.5 Goals' to be scored at odds of [2.58] in the increasingly popular 'Over/Under' markets. The excitement junkies amongst you might prefer to go for 'Over 4.5 Goals' at [4.8] in what I see being an entertaining game with plenty of chances for the home team.

I'd be inclined to wait until the teams are announced before making a first goalscorer selection, but the theory about a player scoring against his old club may come to surface again, with Anelka likely to be a popular selection if he plays at odds of around [5.5].

As much as I strongly fancy a Chelsea win, the unfortunate aspect for you Blues fans is that realistically it should be a similar victory for United. Whoever prevails on Sunday, it's been a fantastic season of Premiership football......... and remember, it's just three months to the start of the next one!