Premier League Betting: Blackburn Rovers v Chelsea

Premier League / Richard Walker / 20 March 2010 / Leave a Comment

Didier Drogba may be the obvious choice for first goalscorer but he still looks a top bet at 4.6

Best Bets: Back Drogba first goalscorer @ [4.6]; Lay Blackburn +1.5 goals @ [1.58]; Back Over 2.5 goals @ [1.93].

After crashing our of the Champions League in midweek, Richard Walker is backing Chelsea to emerge triumphant from this all-important Premier League clash

For six out of the past seven seasons, Chelsea have returned victorious from a visit to Ewood Park, home to a Blackburn Rovers side which has this year been totally reliant on its form in Lancashire.

So an intriguing contest awaits. Big Sam's safety first tactics coming up against Carlo Ancelotti's desperate need to stick in the title race with a hard-fought away win. Make no mistake, a point here for the Blues will be considered two dropped - so I expect them to be going all guns blazing for success.

No doubt Chelsea will still be smarting from their midweek Champions League exit, however they're bigger boys than to let that affect them as they take on a Rovers team eight of whose nine Premier League wins have come on home soil.

Skipper Ryan Nelsen is a big miss for Allardyce. Injured for the last two league games, Blackburn haven't looked half as secure; shipping two at Liverpool then three at Spurs. With keeper Paul Robinson also absent (calf) and Gael Givet doubtful (groin), I think this defensive frailty is enough for Chelsea to capitalise on.

Didier Drogba in particular (his suspension only applies in Europe) will be grateful that Nelsen's not around, and I expect the Ivorian and his colleagues to make the most of this opportunity. In fact, so certain am I that he'll want to contribute, that I'm making backing Drogba for the first goal my bet of the afternoon, priced at [4.6].

Additionally, I'm sure that the visitors will want to send a message out that they're alive and kicking. I'm taking them to win this by at least two goals, so lay Blackburn +1.5 to a relatively inexpensive [1.58] liability.

So my correct score options will see at least two goals between the sides - however yours may not. The [15.0] about 3-1 Chelsea is where it's at for me, however you may prefer the 2-0 [7.2] or 1-0 [7.6] to the Blues. Any Unquoted leads the way at a price of [7.0] to back, while if you fancy the hosts to deny Ancelotti's men the points they need, 0-0 is a [15.0] shot while 1-0 to Rovers is as big as [23.0].

The match odds always do most to reflect the feeling of the Betfair masses. Chelsea are a [1.51] shot here, with The Draw [4.5] and Rovers [8.2]. Heavyweight players need to get involved with the twos-on about the Blues. I just can't see them slipping up, but layers may say well that's not too much bank to put up in case Allardyce's side produce a doughty draw or something highly unexpected.

I've looked a little more closely at the likely number of goals in the game. Chelsea's average this Premier League campaign is 3.31 in games involving themselves, with Rovers also coming in above the line, so to speak, at 2.71. With some of the absentees already mentioned, that's proof enough for me that it's Over 2.5 goals, at [1.93]. that should be receiving your attention. Indeed, if there's an early one - for either side, let's be fair - I'd be looking at playing Over 3.5 ([3.5]) or even Over 4.5 ([6.6]) in running.

When I'm particularly clear on the outcome of a fixture, I like to quickly scroll down the markets to the HT/FT section, hoping against hope for some perceived value about, in this case, the Chelsea/Chelsea scenario. Alas no such joy. The [2.28] is too short in my eyes to commit to. Layers might see that as a chance to collect someone else's cash, hoping that Rovers hold out (or even better) until at least the break. Value hawks might be tempted to back Draw/Chelsea [4.8].

So I've mentioned Drogba already (he's [1.72] to score at any time) and, truth be told, at nine goals clear of the next most prolific player who could take to the pitch - Frank Lampard - he's the stand-out goalscoring candidate.

David Dunn leads the way for the hosts with five, Jason Roberts has four, Morten Gamst Pedersen and Christopher Samba three apiece; hardly the stats to get you plunging in. Of those Roberts at [4.4] to score might be a good saver play. He knows how to score in important games - as does Lampard [2.46] for that matter.