Premier League Betting: Aston Villa v Fulham

Premier League / Jaymes Monte / 29 August 2009 / Leave a Comment

Villa must find some answers to their problems of breaking down stubborn defences or their sixth place finish will become a distant memory.

Recommended Bets;
Back Yes @ 2.3 in Aston Villa Clean Sheet market; Back Aston Villa to win most corners @ 1.8; Back Under 2.5 goals @ 1.7

It will be a clash of styles at Villa Park as Aston Villa try to break down a stubborn and disciplined Fulham side. Villa's failure to break down well organised sides at Villa Park cost them fifth place last season, but Fulham are lacking in the goal scorer department. Best Bet: Back yes to Aston Villa Clean Sheet @ [2.3]

Early indications suggest that both Aston Villa and Fulham may not enjoy as decorated seasons as they did in their respective 2008/09 campaigns.

There were worrying signs for Villa fans when Wigan played them off the park in their opening fixture, then a 3-1 score line against Liverpool masked the true events of a game in which Brad Friedel was required to produce a heroic, man of the match performance to secure victory.

Injury to Fulham's Andy Johnson has augmented their lack of a potent threat in front of goal; from their opening two Premier League fixtures they have only managed to find the back of the net once and that was via a fortuitous deflection off the back of Bobby Zamora.

A look back at Villa's first two fixtures suggests to me that they have yet to address the problems they encountered last season, and are in fact a weaker team. They are more suited, and more comfortable, when teams attack them and they can sit back and play counter attacking football. But when faced with breaking down a well organised team of the likes of Wigan they struggle to find the answers, and the loss of midfield general Gareth Barry, who has yet to be adequately replaced, has only exaggerated that problem.

Much of the talk about Fulham this season will be focused on whether or not they have a squad big enough and strong enough to cope with a Premier League and European campaign. They have already lost Johnson for up to 8 weeks due to an injury sustained in a Europa League fixture, and are now left with a strike force consisting of Zamora, Erik Nevland and Diomansy Kamara. Zamora ([4.6] to score) has never been a player that I have rated highly and neither Nevland nor Kamara posses the goal scoring consistency that Johnson provides to the side.

It all makes for an intriguing battle between the two teams. Under Roy Hodgson we have come to expect a well organised and disciplined Fulham side, and they will provide the sort of test which Villa have struggled against in the past. But their problems in front of goal mean I couldn't be backing them at the [5.6] available on them to win, nor could I be confident in expecting Villa at [1.8] to break down such a well structured side. If my hand was forced, The Draw available at [3.7] would have to be my play on a Match Odds market that I would otherwise suggest staying clear of.

All the issues discussed above lead me to two markets and two conclusions. The first is the Aston Villa clean sheet market; Fulham's lack of goal scoring threat and possibly goal scoring intent for this fixture mean that backing 'Yes' @ [2.3] ticks all the right boxes. Secondly, and possibly not as immediately obvious, is the 'Corners Match Bet' market. Villa's problems with breaking down stubborn teams is not through lack of trying and with Ashley Young and James Milner running the lines they are a side who tend to win a lot of corners through their style of play. Backing Aston Villa in this market at [1.8] should also prove profitable.

Of the more main stream markets it would have to be the Over/Under 2.5 goals which we would logically come to next. Under 2.5 goals is available to back at [1.7] and for me that is another stand out price given the way this game is expected to be played out.

If there are to be goals then you can be sure that Ashley Young won't be far away, he scored the third against Liverpool on Monday and is priced at [4.6] to get his name on the score sheet here. John Carew adds an extra dimension to the Villa attack and if it transpires that he has come through their midweek match unscathed then he will certainly be involved against Fulham. He is available at [6.0] to get the first goal of the match and [2.6] to score at anytime.

There are few 'must win' games at this stage of the season, and this certainly can't be described as such. But it in the context of the season it is an important one and we will certainly gain some extra pointers as to how the two teams respective seasons will unravel and whether or not they have begun to address their frailties.