Premier League Betting: Arsenal are right up there in title race

Premier League / Andrew Atherley / 04 November 2009 / Leave a Comment

Could Cesc Fabregas lead Arsenal to Premier League glory?

"Perhaps the big-four clashes, such as Sunday’s Chelsea v United match, will make the difference, but on current figures the key aspect is that Arsenal are serious title contenders."

A quarter of the way in to the season, Andrew Atherley assesses the Premier League table to explain why Arsenal can win the title and the likes of Everton and Fulham should be opposed post-Europe.

At this stage of the season, when every team has played at least half of the other teams, it's worth taking stock of Premier League standings. One way of doing that is to look at results against all teams bar the big four, which gives a perspective on how each team is performing against the bulk of the league.

Among the top teams, for example, that shows Manchester United and Arsenal are performing best (both have an average of 2.44 points per game against teams outside the big four), with Chelsea just behind on 2.4. Interestingly, Tottenham are next on a strong 2.29, with Manchester City a little behind on 2.0 and Liverpool on a poor (by their standards) 1.67.

Those figures indicate the title race will be a close battle between Chelsea - currently [2.3] favourites in the Winner 2009/10 market - United at [3.6] and Arsenal at [5.1]. Perhaps the big-four clashes, such as Sunday's Chelsea v United match, will make the difference, but on current figures the key aspect is that Arsenal are serious title contenders.

In the next group of teams, Stoke rank highly against big-four teams with an average of 2.0 points per game - the same as Manchester City. Villa are also ahead of Liverpool with 1.8 and Sunderland just behind Liverpool on 1.63.

Stoke and Manchester City are the only sides unbeaten in games against teams from outside the big four - both with four wins and four draws from eight games - and so they look strong chances for this weekend's games in that category.

City are predictably short at [1.36] at home to Burnley, while Stoke are [2.68] favourites away to struggling Hull. Lower-placed teams performing well against non-big four sides are Bolton and Blackburn, who would be four places higher if the table was rearranged using only points from games against teams from outside the big four.

Blackburn have won three out of five in that category at Ewood Park and are [2.22] to back for the win against Portsmouth, while Bolton are [5.6] to win at Aston Villa and continue their good start on the road (two wins out of three against non-big four sides).

The relegation places are unchanged even when results against big four teams are omitted, which indicates that Hull, Portsmouth and West Ham - respectively [1.41], [1.88] and [6.2] in the Relegation 2009/10 market - will be in the thick of the battle to avoid the drop for the rest of the season.

One of the reasons why Fulham and Everton have slipped into the bottom half of the table this season might be the extra workload heaped on them by the new Europa League, and already it is clear that playing in Europe on Thursday night is having some effect on their Premier League results the following weekend.

Fulham are winless in four post-European matches, while Everton have won two out of five. In all, in nine post-European games, the two teams have recorded two wins, three draws and four defeats. And it is also worth noting that they have conceded first in eight out of nine, which hints at a slow-starting tendency when they return to Premier League action after European games.

In post-European away games, Everton and Fulham are winless in six, with four defeats, so that Europa League factor could come into play on Sunday, when Everton visit West Ham and Fulham go to Wigan. In the early betting, West Ham are [2.54] to back for a win and Wigan are [2.48], while Everton and Fulham are [3.1] and [3.4] to lay respectively.