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Premiership
Man Utd v Aston Villa - All eyes on Cristiano Ronaldo as usual
Richard Walker talks us through the key stats and betting markets as Aston Villa try to do what very few have done recently - stop Cristiano Ronaldo and Manchester United
When you've not won for over a month, Old Trafford isn't really the place you want to be going to try and arrest a run of four league games without a win.
However it's the task that faces Martin O'Neill's Aston Villa for the Saturday's Setanta tea-time kick-off against a Manchester United side who - get this - have won their last seven competitive fixtures and have not conceded a goal for 551 minutes of football.
Statistics can get a little dreary but they need to be accounted for when involving your hard-earned in a game like this. [1.33] about a home win might not seem particularly appealing to you however, for me, backing Man Utd/Man Utd in the Half Time/Full Time market at [1.97] appears a very attractive proposition. Or maybe the [1.83] odds for the Red Devils to be leading at the interval might make your portfolio?
The result's not a done deal, some might say; Villa are seventh let's not forget. But it's their form coming into the toughest of all tests on offer this term that's worrying. The last three-pointer was at then relegation-haunted Reading, 2-1 with a thick spread of jam apparently. Back them at [13.0] if you're brave enough - with perhaps a side order of the draw, priced at [5.5], just in case it's a miracle of only minor proportions.
United have no injury worries coming out of the midweek round of international matches, however Villa will lose the versatile defender Craig Gardner after he returned injured from England Under-21 duty. Olof Mellberg's joining Juventus in the summer but says he wants to sign off by getting the Villains into the UEFA Cup places. Suspended last game, he's back in the reckoning while, mistake-ridden of late, keeper Scott Carson is less certain to start - but will all this really matter anyway?
I've previewed a few United games of late and, a while back, suggested backing Cristiano Ronaldo in the To Score (at any time) market. There seems no reason to stray from this logic, the man clearly loves scoring goals. (Cue small drum roll) He's scored 27 goals in 25 league starts! And 34 in total this campaign! You can put your faith, and cash, on him carrying on gleefully at anything around the [1.9] mark. And if your confidence knows no limits about the gifted Portuguese, it may be worth getting on him at around [5.5] to notch first in the match.
Betfair offers so many punting opportunities on a fixture that, just because to most the outcome would seem a near certainty, there's plenty of interest to keep things bubbling till the final whistle.
For example, the popular Overs and Unders goals markets. Over 2.5 goals in the game is at [1.89] to back, perhaps a reflection of Villa's reasonably solid rear-guard which has only shipped an average of a goal a game. However, I fancy if United get an early one they just might open up the visitors and I can hear a little voice calling me towards the [6.6] to back about their being Over 4.5 goals! If you can't get the voices out of your head either, you might care to join me on that somewhat adventurous wager.
First Goal odds - the time window of the initial onion-bag bulging - is also a market meriting consideration. If that early goal does come, [5.0] are the odds of reward for successfully backing the first goal to arrive from 0-10 minutes. If that's a bit early for your liking, how does the [4.8] about 11-20 minutes sound. Check out the list - you're bound to have an opinion.
But the odds I found perhaps most enticing of all were the [1.92] to back about a Manchester United clean sheet. While we don't want to get bogged down in a swamp of stats necessarily, simply noting that United haven't conceded a solitary goal in six whole matches would suggest that it's a price you might consider as a value investment.
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Events calendar
15/05/2008 | Cricket
Eng v NZ 1st Test - Lords
25/05/2008 | Formula One
Monaco - GP
26/05/2008 | Tennis
French Open (Paris)





I can't see the Reds slipping up here. With a game against Arsenal before the end of the season I think they'll see this a must win. I'm sure they will take advantage of a currently under-performing Villa. Well I hope so as my money's on Utd!
Joe
Joe | 28 March 2008