Jack Houghton's Betting Challenge Week 38: Sublime Spurs can win race for fourth

Premier League / Jack Houghton / 18 April 2010 / Leave a Comment

Can in-form Gareth Bale fire Spurs to a fourth place finish?

"My ratings say Spurs are better than Manchester City and, with a two-point cushion, the fourth-placed berth is theirs. The Betting Challenge is having £70 on at [1.86]."

After wins against Arsenal and Chelsea, Tottenham are poised to finish fourth in the Premier League. Meanwhile, some handy hints for betting on this summer's World Cup from Betfair's Betting Challenge supremo.

There is a truth professional gamblers hold to be self-evident: to be profitable, you must specialise. Losers gorge themselves of all that the great buffet of betting has to offer; winners only ever eat the cheese and pineapple sticks. Who knows what might be lurking in that couscous salad? Therein lies uncertainty, and winners have no truck with uncertainty.

Jack Houghton was a long-time follower of the specialisation theory. Many learned academics credit him with its invention. But now he's turned his back. August 2009. Armed with a £1,000 bank and oodles of likely misplaced confidence, he sets out to prove that, in a year, betting on everything Betfair has to offer, he can turn a profit.

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Rumours ripple across the great ocean Web that Houghton is making his way back from Italy. For some not altogether clear reason, an editor was despatched from betting.betfair to persuade him back and, reluctantly it seems, he has agreed to return. So I fear this may be the last Betting Challenge instalment for which I, The Merchant, am at the helm.

Before I go then, I wanted to talk football. My betting focus in life is football. I maintain a database of ratings, based on an adapted Elo Rating System, focusing on English football and international matches. It's made me a wealthy man, so here are some parting recommendations, to act as a reminder over the next few months of our time together.

In the Premier League, Spurs are value at [1.86] to take a top four spot at the expense of Manchester City. It is likely both teams will drop points in their next matches, against Manchester United and Arsenal respectively, but thereafter, Spurs look to have the slightly easier run-in, with an away fixture against City themselves the key swinger. But the ratings say Spurs are the better of the two sides and, with a two-point cushion, the fourth-placed berth is theirs. The Betting Challenge is having £70 on at [1.86].

To the World Cup. International football is an extremely profitable area in which to bet, provided you have some emotionally unencumbered ratings on which to rely. Prices tend to reflect long-held European views about a country's place in world football, rather than offering a more objective assessment of recent form. This leads to artificially short prices for more established footballing countries, and overly generous prices for the rest.

Take Group A. France -- woeful in qualifying -- have taken a steady march down the ratings in recent years, being passed en route by a surging Mexico. By my reckoning, it will be a coin-toss as to whether France are even able to qualify from the group, with Uruguay perfectly capable of taking second spot. So the Betting Challenge is laying France in the group for £20 at [2.2] and backing Mexico for £20 at [4.7].

In Group B, South Korea look value to qualify at [3.8]. Although Argentina should win the group, Nigeria and Greece will struggle to fill the second berth. Nigeria are not the team they were in the 90s, and Greece have been in freefall since their Euro 2004 win. Despite lacking the services of Guus Hiddink, South Korea qualified without being beaten, and will prove similarly difficult to break down in South Africa. The Betting Challenge is having £20 on.

Slightly speculatively, I'm also having £20 on Honduras to qualify from Group H at [6.0]. It's hard to see how anyone will trouble Spain, but recent form suggests Honduras are far more evenly matched with Switzerland and Chile than the betting would have us believe.

One last piece of advice -- it's time to get out of our bet on Gordon Brown's exit. The Betting Challenge is laying July-September for £60 at [3.1]. The [5.8] the bet was recommended at was sound, but given it now looks as if we are heading for a hung parliament, it's quite probable Brown will hang around longer than anticipated, in order to broker some power-sharing deal. So let's take a guaranteed profit on the bet and run.

This week's bets:
£70 Back Tottenham at [1.86] in Top Four Premiership market.
£20 Lay France at [2.2] to win Group A.
£20 Back Mexico at [4.7] to win Group A.
£20 Back South Korea at [3.8] to qualify from Group B.
£20 Back Honduras at [6.0] to qualify from Group H.
£60 Lay Jul-Sept 2010 at [3.1] in Leader Exit Dates, Gordon Brown.

Already recommended:
£40 BACK Jul-Sept 2010 at [5.8] in Leader Exit Dates, Gordon Brown - 29/10/09.
£40 BACK Manchester United at [3.35] in Premier League - 06/12/09.
£20 BACK No Overall Majority at [4.1] in Next General Election - 11/12/09.
£50 BACK 54 Seats+, Lib Dems at [2.0] in Next General Election - 29/01/10.
£40 BACK Topalov at [2.16] to win World Chess Championship - 14/04/10.
£100 BACK Higgins at [6.3] to win World Snooker Championship - 14/04/10.
£60 BACK Under 10.5 seats at [2.0] in Conservative Majority market - 14/04/10.