Premier League / Frank Gregan / 01 July 2009 / Leave a comment

With Barcelona desperate to lure Cesc Fabregas to the Nou Camp, Frank Gregan believes that a poor start to the season could make Arsene Wenger a lively outsider in Betfair's First Managerial Change market...

"My future is at this great club. I am wholeheartedly committed to Arsenal." This statement from Cesc Fabregas must have been music to the ears of Arsene Wenger as he prepares for the coming season. Losing any player from a squad as thin as the Gunners would be a blow, to lose arguably their best player would be devastating.

But still the rumours persist and, having missed out on Franck Ribery (who looks set to join Real Madrid), Barca are desperate to capture the Arsenal skipper who spent his boyhood years with the Catalan club. It will all come down to money and the old adage of everyone having a price will prevail and, should the Gunners accept an offer, Arsene Wenger´s job - which is currently difficult - may well become impossible.

One of the most important personal qualities that a football manager needs to possess is a very thick skin. Wenger is a gentleman and a class act but he has something that most football managers lose very early on in their careers - a sensitive streak. If criticism were to come his way should Arsenal endure a difficult start to the season, it would not be a huge surprise if he was to walk away from the Emirates. The first managerial change market is yet to get up and running but Wenger will be available at a very big price and he is worth considering as a lively outsider.

A good start is vital and given Arsenal´s bare cupboard of late, they need to hit the ground running. But the fixture list has not been kind to them. They start with a tricky away game at Everton before facing Bolton and Portsmouth at home. Most Gooners would fancy six points from those two home games but due to their Champions League commitments the Bolton game has had to be postponed. After Pompey, Wenger´s men then travel to Manchester twice, first to face United and then City. That is a tough opening programme which will be made much worse if the dressing room is bemoaning the departure of their skipper.

This season could well be the year when the "big four´s" monopoly is broken. "Monopoly" is the key word as far as Manchester City are concerned as they continue to flex their financial muscle. Everton, Aston Villa and Tottenham are three others who will be looking at that coveted fourth spot with dreamy eyes. If Fabregas were to move then it is worth taking the Gunners on in a couple of the season match bets markets.

There are a couple of standout bets which are dependent on your personal beliefs. If you are a believer in discipline and diligence combined with a strong work ethic, it will probably be possible to lay The Gunners in the region of [1.2] against Everton and given that David Moyes´ men continue to get harder and harder to beat that looks a tempting lay. If you belong in "the bloke with the most money will win the most matches" camp then a lay around [1.4] should be available in the season match bet against Manchester City. The irony is if a Jose Mourinho-esque character was the incumbent of the City hot-seat then the odds would probably be reversed.

This season is going to be one of the greatest challenges of Arsene Wenger´s managerial career and there is likely to be no grey area - it is sink or swim time. Cesc Fabregas is the lifebelt, if he joins Barcelona the water is waiting!