Community Shield Betting Preview: Manchester United v Chelsea

Premier League / James Eastham / 09 August 2009 / Leave a Comment

Ben Foster is likely to deputise for van der Sar today. Will he reproduce his Carling Cup shootout heroics?

"It's Chelsea for me, with a small wager on Manchester United to win on penalties. The best tip of all, though, is the following: whatever you do, don't go blowing your season's betting budget on this the curtain-raiser. If Fergie doesn't take the game too seriously, neither should you."

Don't go crazy on today's Community Shield says James Eastham, after all, Fergie isn't too fussed about it...

There's a randomness about Manchester United's results in the Charity/Community Shield that suggests this is the one occasion of the year where Sir Alex Ferguson doesn't care if he wins or loses.

In his time in charge of the club, the Scot has overseen seven victories, five defeats and once ended up sharing the trophy with arch-rivals Liverpool (how quaint football used to be). Five of those seven wins came via a penalty shoot-out, while United's occasionally lax defending in this fixture means they have twice conceded three goals against Arsenal (1998 and 2004). All of which suggests this is about as close to a warm-up game as a competitive fixture will ever get with Ferguson in charge.

Which leaves exchanges players with a problem, since it's difficult to identify clear pointers towards sound punting opportunities.

You may feel that the absence of penalty-saving expert Edwin van der Sar (broken finger) diminishes United's chances of winning the match should it go to spot-kicks - which is how they've lifted the trophy three times since 2003 - but it's worth recalling that Ben Foster proved himself an able deputy in the same situation, with the aid of an iPod, in Manchester United's victory over Tottenham in the Carling Cup final last season.

Ferguson's praise in the week for new Chelsea manager Carlo Ancelotti sounded genuine enough rather than an attempt to destabilise United's opponents in the build-up to the match, but his admiration for his opposite number should come as no surprise given that the Italian led AC Milan to two Champions League triumphs.

Collecting European trophies has always been Ferguson's ultimate benchmark of success, and the Italian's arrival will also has focused the attentions of his own players, who will approach the game with a greater focus than their United counterparts because they are still looking to pin down places in the starting XI. Michael Ballack, Michael Essien and Florent Malouda are among a number of highly-paid internationals unsure of exactly where they stand in the new manager's plans just a week before the Premier League kick-off.

Throw in the fact that Chelsea finished the 2008-09 season without a trophy so are more likely than United to want to make a statement on Sunday, and the Blues look the better bet to collect the plate. The sides are virtually impossible to separate in the "Who Will Lift The Trophy?" market (United are [2.24], Chelsea are [1.8]) - but I'd favour Chelsea purely on the basis that they ought to be hungrier for the prize.

Whoever wins the match, expect an average number of goals to be scored. The last 10 'Shields' have spawned 25 goals, with five having over 2.5 goals and five having under 2.5 goals.

'Unders' is priced up much shorter, however, because of the pattern of recent head-to-head clashes: seven of the last nine meetings between the sides have featured two goals or fewer, a run of games that includes the 2007 Community Shield (1-1 at full-time and after extra-time), the 2008 FA Cup final (0-0 at full-time, 1-0 to Chelsea after extra-time) and the 2008 Champions League final (1-1 at full-time and after extra-time). The [1.66] is too short for me, but I understand why the market is trading at that level.

So it's Chelsea for me, with a small wager on Manchester United to win on penalties. The best tip of all, though, is the following: whatever you do, don't go blowing your season's betting budget on this the curtain-raiser. If Fergie doesn't take the game too seriously, neither should you.

Recommended bets:

Chelsea to lift the Community Shield @ [1.8]