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Premiership

Are you a rational, sane punter or an unbalanced, deranged supporter? Newcastle for the cup?

Seduced by pre-season optimism, supporters who listen to their hearts are causing exceptional value on the big-guns, says Frank Gregan.

At this is the time of year football supporters the length and breadth of the country stop thinking rationally. Euro 2008 is coming to a close and thoughts are turning to the start of our domestic campaign. The volumes of cash being placed on all the Betfair home markets is gradually increasing as supporters bare their souls and put down their hard earned corn on their beloved teams.

"'There's one born every minute." A whole host of emotively driven football fans fall into that category. Hull City, Stoke and West Brom have all been backed by fearless supporters to win the Premier League this coming season. Manchester United and Chelsea have been backed to be relegated and Queens Park Rangers have been matched to win the FA Cup. The chances of collecting on any of those bets (unless you are the layer) are zilch, nada, not a sausage! The backers may as well have tried to get a match on Lord Lucan and Elvis returning, forming a duo and winning this years' X Factor.

Part of the pre-season nerves package for supporters is this devil and angel scenario, you know the good guy on the right shoulder offering sage betting advice and the demon on the left shoulder reminding them of their footballing allegiance. It is a battle of the supporter's cerebral matter, the fanatical obsession and the voice of reason. I mean, come on, let's have a reality check here. Who in their right mind will back Newcastle to win the Premier League no matter what price they are? I will, because that little demon on the left shoulder is telling me how gutted I will be if they win the title next year if I don't put my money where my heart is.

Betfair members who are able to listen to the voice of reason will not be focusing on sentimentality but the harsh reality that we have two exceptional football teams in this country. Manchester United and Chelsea will both be major forces once again next season. However, because of the emotive money that is being placed in the markets there is some exceptional value available on the two current giants of the English game. Both clubs are available at [1.13] to finish in the top three of the league next year and there is every chance that a match could be made at [1.18] on either of the two teams. That is an 18% return on your investment which can be traded during the course of the season. My money will be on Manchester United. As the small print always says, past performance is no guarantee of future success but their record in the competition since its inception is nothing short of awesome.

A coupled bet on the two giants in the FA Cup (a win bet on both Manchester United and Chelsea) will yield a return of [3.0]. That is the bet of an intelligent, unbiased and sane man. Football supporters are not sane or unbiased and there will be hundreds of thousands investing in their own team - that is why the price of the big two is so attractive.

It is time to call it as it is. Are you a rational, sane punter or an unbalanced, deranged supporter? My recommendation is to back Man Utd and Chelsea in the FA Cup but my money will be on Newcastle at [25.0]. In the fifty years I have been on this planet Newcastle have never won the FA Cup yet that little demon that leads me towards emotive betting is telling me this could be our year. The beauty of Betfair is that there will be a sane layer out there ready to take my emotive bet. Must dash, time for my medication!