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Austria can warm up for Euro 2008 failure with defeat against Germany

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Dan "The Betting Man" Fitch previews Germany's short trip to Austria in a dress-rehearsal for their Euro 2008 Group B encounter

Normally if two international teams have arranged to play each other in a friendly, only to be drawn together in a major tournament, the friendly is quickly scrapped. International coaches (who let's face it, don't have very much to do except obsess over tactics) are generally loathe to give their counterparts a first hand insight into just how their team can be overcome.

It says much then, that this Wednesday will see Austria play host to Germany, despite being drawn together in Group B of Euro 2008. The German football authorities clearly think that Austria will pose no threat to them in the summer. It's hard not to agree.

Austria must surely be the weakest host nation in the history of the European Championships. In 2007 the Austrian team won just one match, against the Ivory Coast and could only manage draws against Malta, Ghana, Paraguay, Czech Republic, Japan and Tunisia. They lost to such varied opposition as Scotland, France, Chile, Switzerland and most embarrassingly of all, Steve McClaren's England.

Looking at the squad that has been picked to face Germany, it is not difficult to see why they have such a poor record. Most international squads feature a number of players that are based in Europe's strongest leagues. Austria's eighteen man squad boasts just two players based in Italy and one player from England. To make matters worse, that player is not Ronaldo but Middlesbrough's Emanuel Pogatetz.

Traditionally many Austrian players would cross the border to the Bundesliga, but today, only two players based in Germany are amongst the squad. Without any major stars to call upon, Austrian coach Josef Hickersberger has tried to build a young team. They have no players with fifty or more caps and the top scorer in the squad is the midfielder Rene Aufhauser with just ten goals.

Austria clearly lack the experience or ability to be anything but whipping boys at Euro 2008. Famously, their own fans have launched an online petition to ban the Austrian team from competing at Euro 2008, so it doesn't seem likely that many will be backing them at [110] to win the tournament, in a wave of blind patriotism.

Whilst the Austrians are the rank outsiders to win Euro 2008, Germany are the [5.7] favourites. As tournament favourites, the [1.72] available for Germany to win Group B seems generous, though the price has probably been influenced by memories of Croatia's performances against England. Croatia are available at [3.35] to take Group B, with Poland [9.4] and Austria [19].

With Austria desperately short of experienced players at top European clubs, Hickersberger must be envious at the news of the recall of Michael Ballack to the German squad. Ballack has not played for his country since March of last year and the skipper's experience will be much needed. Ballack's goals-per-game record for Germany is fantastic for a midfielder, with 35 goals from 77 appearances. He's currently enjoying his best form since joining Chelsea, in the absence of Essien and Lampard. It seems that Ballack thrives when he's the main man, which he certainly is for the Germans.

Germany will be without the injured Oliver Neuville, Torsten Frings and Christoph Metzelder, amongst others, but overall have named a strong squad for this match. I think the [1.58] for an away win for Germany is a good price, with Austria [7.2] and the draw [4.1]. The price of [3.55] for over 3.5 goals may also be of interest to traders, with this match being offered in-play. The Germans scored more goals than any other team in qualifying for Euro 2008, though admittedly thirteen of them were scored in one match against San Marino.

The only possible fly in the ointment is the cosy relationship that historically exists between the two nations. Those old enough to remember the 1982 World Cup will remember the two neighbours aimlessly playing out a group game, to ensure that they both qualified for the knockout stages. Is a repeat likely to occur at Euro 2008? Only if the Austrians can somehow persuade Croatia and Poland to let them win the first two games.

Link to Austrian petition:

http://www402.ws7.inname.net/initiative_uk.php