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Michael Vaughan: Sri Lanka to beat Windies in T20 Final

Michael's backing Jayawardene to play a winning innings

Sri Lanka will never have a better chance to win a World Cup. They're worthy favourites at 1.84/5.

Recommended Bets
Back Sri Lanka @ 1.84/5
Back Mahela Jayawrdene @ 3.7511/4 for top Sri Lanka Batsman
Back Marlon Samuels @ 5.59/2 for top West Indies batsman

Fresh from showing us his own confident moves on Strictly Come Dancing, Betfair Ambassador Michael Vaughan explains why he's backing Sri Lanka's batsman and bowlers to take the fight to the West Indies in this afternoon's T20 World Cup Final.

If you'd asked fans to put aside their loyalties at the start of the tournament this might well have been the final most wold have hoped for. It's always great for the hosts to reach the final and Colombo will be rocking for Sunday's T20 World Cup showdown. Mahela Jayawardene says it's "the biggest ever match in Sri Lanka" and you can't argue with that.

So can they put three consecutive final defeats behind them and make it fourth time lucky or will the West Indies crash the party? Sri Lanka will never have a better chance to win a World Cup. Home support will be a massive factor and, while you might argue that they rely too heavily on Jayawardene and Tillakaratne Dilshan, they are the stronger team. They're worthy favourites at 1.84/5.

But a lot comes down to how their bowlers attack Chris Gayle. If he turns up and takes it to Sri Lanka then I think the Windies will win. Their batting has more depth than many acknowledge - Marlon Samuels has had a good World Cup and Kieron Pollard was excellent in the semi-final against Australia - but if Sri Lanka can get ride of Gayle they will be in a strong position.

I think Gayle is susceptible to off-spin and I'd be tempted to get Ajantha Mendis opening the bowling. When England played the West Indies, Gayle struggled against Graeme Swann so I'd get Dilshan bowling his off-breaks too. The pair of them could slow him down and potentially bamboozle him in to making an error which could be this match's turning point. If the Windies batsman do get rattle then Lasith Malinga, who I consider the finest T20 bowler in the world, will pounce.

I'm going to back Sri Lanka to win this one and, for that reason, I'm also going to snub Gayle in the Windies top batsman market. I just have a feeling that today won't be his day and, at 2.727/4, I don't like the prices. I'll take Samuels at 5.59/2 while for Sri Lanka I expect a captain's innings to prove decisive: Jayawardene 3.7511/4 for top bat as Sri Lanka win the 2012 T20 World Cup.

Recommended Bets
Back Sri Lanka @ 1.84/5
Back Mahela Jayawrdene @ 3.7511/4 for top Sri Lanka Batsman
Back Marlon Samuels @ 5.59/2 for top West Indies batsman

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07 October 2012

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