Michael Vaughan: Sri Lanka to beat Windies in T20 Final
Sri Lanka will never have a better chance to win a World Cup. They're worthy favourites at 1.84/5.
Recommended Bets
Back Sri Lanka @ 1.84/5
Back Mahela Jayawrdene @ 3.7511/4 for top Sri Lanka Batsman
Back Marlon Samuels @ 5.59/2 for top West Indies batsman
Fresh from showing us his own confident moves on Strictly Come Dancing, Betfair Ambassador Michael Vaughan explains why he's backing Sri Lanka's batsman and bowlers to take the fight to the West Indies in this afternoon's T20 World Cup Final.
If you'd asked fans to put aside their loyalties at the start of the tournament this might well have been the final most wold have hoped for. It's always great for the hosts to reach the final and Colombo will be rocking for Sunday's T20 World Cup showdown. Mahela Jayawardene says it's "the biggest ever match in Sri Lanka" and you can't argue with that.
So can they put three consecutive final defeats behind them and make it fourth time lucky or will the West Indies crash the party? Sri Lanka will never have a better chance to win a World Cup. Home support will be a massive factor and, while you might argue that they rely too heavily on Jayawardene and Tillakaratne Dilshan, they are the stronger team. They're worthy favourites at 1.84/5.
But a lot comes down to how their bowlers attack Chris Gayle. If he turns up and takes it to Sri Lanka then I think the Windies will win. Their batting has more depth than many acknowledge - Marlon Samuels has had a good World Cup and Kieron Pollard was excellent in the semi-final against Australia - but if Sri Lanka can get ride of Gayle they will be in a strong position.
I think Gayle is susceptible to off-spin and I'd be tempted to get Ajantha Mendis opening the bowling. When England played the West Indies, Gayle struggled against Graeme Swann so I'd get Dilshan bowling his off-breaks too. The pair of them could slow him down and potentially bamboozle him in to making an error which could be this match's turning point. If the Windies batsman do get rattle then Lasith Malinga, who I consider the finest T20 bowler in the world, will pounce.
I'm going to back Sri Lanka to win this one and, for that reason, I'm also going to snub Gayle in the Windies top batsman market. I just have a feeling that today won't be his day and, at 2.727/4, I don't like the prices. I'll take Samuels at 5.59/2 while for Sri Lanka I expect a captain's innings to prove decisive: Jayawardene 3.7511/4 for top bat as Sri Lanka win the 2012 T20 World Cup.
Recommended Bets
Back Sri Lanka @ 1.84/5
Back Mahela Jayawrdene @ 3.7511/4 for top Sri Lanka Batsman
Back Marlon Samuels @ 5.59/2 for top West Indies batsman
Author
Sport News 24/7
Comments (1)
PJ | 07 October 2012
Hey Vaughny,
This is my first comment ever on Betfair blog. I am a regular reader here and I read almost every article being posted here on cricket and I just love them all. It helps me decide my bets as well.
Though I would like to add that I don't stop using my instinct and head, largely because Cricket is so unpredictable and T20 takes the unpredictability to just one another level. Also at times as merely human beings we are, we only see or think what we want to see, and not what we actually should try and see!!
That's where individuality and unique understanding comes into the picture.
Super call on the top scorers for this match, alike Richard O'Hagan who also called them absolutely right. Very well done on that! And sorry Richard, I am posting a comment here and not on your article.
West Indies have won it and I am not surprised, in fact I am on a high since I kept laying off the Lankan's. Even when they were just a little higher than 3-4 runs per over rate after 10 overs.
I had faith in that man, Marlon Samuels and he proved himself that why he was a pick of the Cricket betting experts for tonight ;-) I also thought that Gayle would fail tonight, I tipped a friend to Lay him off!! But he didn't listen!
I emotionally also wanted West Indies to win, I feel sad for the Lankan's though, I knew they have lost the match by losing the crucial toss. It was very very humid in Sri Lanka today and the tiredness of fielding first was easily visible in Mahela Jayawardene (who's growing older day by day) and co.
One thing I would surely like to ask here is that I don't know why Toss was not given any significance here on Betfair? I mean in most of the match previews and tips, nobody did talked much about the toss more than once or two. In most of the matches Toss played an important role. Stats for this series may prove what I am saying is true.
T20 World Cup has come to an end. It has been a great series, we have seen the weaknesses and strength of many teams and I am sure there are interesting days ahead in the World of Cricket.
Last but not the least, all the very best for all your dancing, I would wrap up now, a comment which is pretty lengthy, but don't you hate me for this!
I am eagerly looking forward to the Champions League T20 2012!! So bring on the moolah's!!!!
Regards
Happy Betting!!