Wimbledon Women's Tips: Two to back at 16/1 and 37/1 plus outsiders to consider

• Doubts over leading players mean draw is wide open

• All or nothing for Wimbledon specialist

• American veteran holds Keys on grass

Iga Swiatek met expectations by dominating the clay court season and bagging her fourth French Open crown. However, picking the winner of Wimbledon is less obvious.

There are doubts over most players expected to challenge, adding a layer of intrigue to who will win this year's grass court major.

Difficult transition

Swiatek is the outright favourite 4.84/1 but she has not played a warm-up event and her game does not transition naturally to the grass.

Opponents can rush her, and she has yet to wrap her head around how to adjust her game on this surface.

The Olympic games will be held at her beloved Roland Garros at the end of July and it is certain that winning Gold is Swiatek's priority. Her dad is a former Olympic champion in rowing, and without an apparent effort to master grass court conditions, I imagine Wimbledon ambitions can be parked for another year.

Australian Open champion Aryna Sabalenka 4.94/1 should expect to compete for this title, but last week in Berlin she retired at 5-1 down in her match against Anna Kalinskaya due to a right shoulder issue.

Although it was possibly only a precaution, it was not the ideal preparation for the 2023 and 2021 semi-finalist.

Similarly, 2022 champion Elena Rybakina 6.411/2 retired last week due to an illness. Of all players in the draw I think the Kazakhstani has the most natural toolkit to be successful on grass courts. Her serve and groundstrokes are tailor-made for conditions - direct, controlled, easy to reproduce.

If Rybakina is fit, she's the player to beat.

Back Ons Jabeur at 16/1

Ons Jabeur 17.5 has built her entire season around peaking for Wimbledon and trying to win it for the first time.

The Tunisian is a bag of tricks - slices, drop shots and powerful drives. No player can match her range and she relishes leading her opponents on a merry dance around a slippery grass court. Jabeur was a finalist in both 2022 and 2023.

She knows this tournament is her best chance of winning a Grand Slam but in the past two seasons the all or nothing pressure she has adopted has proven her undoing.

However, I do expect her to go close once again. Whether she can get over the line remains to be seen, but Jabeur is worth keeping onside at 17.5.

The specialist

American power hitter Madison Keys is at her most destructive on the grass, scoring three career titles on the surface over the course of her career.

With doubts over the main contenders there is potential for her to do well this year. Keys has outperformed her seeding on her past two visits, and starts this year seeded 12th which is a decent position from which to build a title tilt.

Keys has experience going deep at a major, having reached the 2017 US Open final. The occasion was too big for her then but her potential has never been in question.

At 29, Keys has plenty of experience under her belt and the ever narrowing opportunity for her to compete for a Slam may focus her mind and be the catalyst for her grasping this chance. At a meaty 38.037/1 on the Betfair Exchange, Keys is worth an investment.

Osaka leads Wimbledon lively contenders

Last year Marketa Vondrousova stunned the field by winning from an unseeded position. It was an upset for the history books as the Czech had barely demonstrated a liking for grass court tennis before going on to capture the most coveted title in the sport.

I doubt history will repeat itself in 2024, at least for Vondrousova. However, upsets happen at Wimbledon and it may be worth looking beyond the frontrunners for a potential pick.

Naomi Osaka needs little introduction. The Japanese player has multiple hard court Grand Slam titles to her name but has yet to have a serious stab at winning at the French Open or Wimbledon.

However, Osaka is putting in the hard yards and it was impossible not to be impressed by her performance against Swiatek in Paris. Osaka is showing a willingness to adapt to the conditions and although her career appearances on grass are a rarity it is logical that she does well on this surface.

Her playing style is regularly compared with that of the legendary Serena Williams who conquered Wimbledon seven times. If Osaka gets her head around how to move on grass she will take some beating on current form. She is coasting under the radar at 17.5.

Another player on the comeback trail is the phenomenally talented Bianca Andreescu. The Canadian's career has been derailed by injuries and since returning to tour she has been impressive.

The former US Open champion had a career best showing at Roland Garros, losing to eventual finalist Jasmine Paolini, before she battled through to a first grass court final in s'Hertogenbosch.

There is a lot of upside in backing Andreescu. She has the ability to do a Vondrousova and I wouldn't warn anyone of a speculative dabble at 160.0159/1

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