Wimbledon

Wimbledon Women's Singles Tips: 125/1 and 45/1 outright selections in women's draw

Osaka Wimbledon
Something to prove: Hard court champion Naomi Osaka has the game to do well on grass

There is value in opposing the short priced outright favourites in the women's Wimbledon draw. Tennis tipster Gavin Mair explains...

  • Rybakina, Sabalenka and Jabeur the players to beat

  • How to oppose Swiatek in quarter one

  • Taking on vulnerable Gauff


Since the Wimbledon draw Aryna Sabalenka has become the outright favourite, leaping past Iga Swiatek who has been assigned a tough path to the final.

2022 finalists Ons Jabeur and Elena Rybakina are set to meet in the round of 16, whilst Sabalenka has landed in a part of the draw devoid of the main contenders for the Wimbledon crown.

It is the first and fourth quarters of the draw featuring top seed Swiatek and Coco Gauff respectively where I feel value outright options might exist.

Hard work

Top seed Swiatek has not played since her French Open victory citing mental and physical fatigue. She undoubtedly possesses the talent to do well at Wimbledon, but it would require her to mix up her game from the formula that has proven successful on other surfaces.

In not playing any warm up events I am doubtful that she has positioned herself to have a serious go at winning this year's event.

The biggest weakness in Swiatek's game is rushing her on her forehand side and that is more easy for opponent's to do on grass than other surfaces. Her record on faster tracks is comparatively poor to that on slower conditions, where she is able to overwhelm opponents with her groundstrokes.

There is no such thing as an easy draw for Swiatek on grass. She did make the quarter-final last season but lost as a sub 1.21/5 favourite against Elina Svitolina. The potential for Iga to lose unexpectedly is high.

The trick is in picking the right candidate.

On paper Jelena Ostapenko stands a chance and may get it right at Wimbledon one of these years. In her career, the Latvian has bagged a couple of grass court titles and has also enjoyed prolonged runs at Wimbledon.

Her brand of power hitting can be unplayable on this surface. The question is - and this is something doubtless even she can't answer - is whether this Wimbledon will be that time. Betting on her is akin to placing money on roulette. There is always hope but the ball doesn't land as often on red or black as it should.

There is so much upside on Ostapenko though that if she gets it right and builds momentum she can go all the way. At 45/146.00 that is worth a dabble.


Go fourth

The second and third quarters house Rybakina, Jabeur and Sabalenka and I don't find an obvious candidate to upset them.

In my pre-draw preview I asserted the chances of Madison Keys and she has landed nicely in the soft fourth quarter.

Coco Gauff is the highest seed in this section but she is flawed on this surface. Her forehand is vulnerable to pressure and she won't be able to make the most of her athletic defensive traits on the awkward grass surface.

There were a couple of other names highlighted in my initial preview and they have both found their way into this fourth quarter. The unseeded and high calibre duo of Bianca Andreescu and Naomi Osaka.

Andreescu is a box of tricks that has shown impressive form since returning to tour at the French Open. I watched her closely recently and her form is in a good place despite a heavy defeat to a motivated Anna Blinkova last week - in which I don't feel the Canadian gave her best effort.

She can make her game work on the grass, and should find the early seeds of Jasmine Paolini and Linda Noskova negotiable.

Then she may face Keys or whoever emerges from that open bottom quarter.

At 125/1126.00 the former US Open champion is too big to ignore.


Osaka is a credible alternative to Keys in the bottom section of quarter four. The Japanese player is in the draw as a wildcard - and she is the dictionary definition of that.

I was impressed by Osaka's willingness this season to adapt to clay, which prior to her tour absence had been an alien surface to her. Early in the grass season she was showing a similar enthusiasm to learn the ropes and she has a decent platform to go on a run at Wimbledon.

The seeds on her path - Victoria Azarenka and Emma Navarro - are both negotiable for a player of Osaka's quality. She would then be asked to hurdle Gauff in round four, which I fancy her to do if her form is strong enough to get through the early rounds.

From there nobody will want to face Osaka who at 18/119.00 may prove a credible threat to win this tournament.


Now read more Wimbledon previews and tips here.


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