Wimbledon Women's Final Tip: 11/10 Krejcikova to get it done

• Krejcikova suits the grass

• Paolini in form of her life

• Czech more complete player

Women's tennis loves to surprise. One year it is qualifier Emma Raducanu winning the US Open, another it is Marketa Vondrousova winning Wimbledon as an unseeded player.

At the 2024 edition of Wimbledon the surprises have continued, with a Championship match to be contested between Czechia's Barbora Krejcikova and Italy's Jasmine Paolini. Neither player at the start of the tournament would be on the minds of most to be contesting at the business end of this year's event.

However, I do see an advantage for Barbora Krejcikova and I am keen to keep her on-side.

Natural surfaces

Krejcikova is a player I rate very highly. Her presence in a second Grand Slam final, and first since her 2021 French Open triumph is a reward for her talent.

In all honesty I didn't see this run coming. The Czech has had an injury impacted season, losing in the first round of four consecutive tournaments - including at Roland Garros - prior to the start of the grass season.

She had a run to the quarters of Birmingham but was squashed by Anastasia Potapova before being handily dispatched in the first round of Eastbourne by Leylah Annie Fernandez. It was hardly the form of a Grand Slam contender.

Since arriving at Wimbledon however, the best version of Krejcikova has emerged. It is clear that conditions really suit her game.

An innovative data point that has featured regularly on television coverage of Wimbledon has shown the tendency of a player to spend time attacking, defending or in neutral during points.

Krejcikova has shown that she is comfortable in either defensive or attacking settings on grass courts that have been likened to green clay. She demonstrated against elite grass court talents Elena Rybakina and Jelena Ostapenko that her game can neutralise their powerful strikes, whilst equally commanding on the front foot.

The Czech is a top talent on natural surfaces and is finally stringing together some of her best tennis.

Riding her luck

Opponent Paolini is riding the crest of a wave. The Italian is in phenomenal and completely unexpected form.

With this appearance in the Wimbledon final she has accumulated the third most amount of ranking points of any women's player this season (only trailing Iga Swiatek and Elena Rybakina).

Despite her impressive performance levels, she has however been riding her luck of late. Paolini looked destined for a tournament exit when 5/2 down against Madison Keys before the American's body gave in.

Similarly a combination of a disintegrating physical condition and a bunch of nerves enabled her to get over the winning line against Donna Vekic.

More complete player

I am more convinced by the level being shown by Krejcikova and believe her multifaceted game will prove too much for Paolini who is running out of lives.

Krejcikova has beaten higher calibre players than Paolini at this tournament and I expect her superiority will reveal itself.

An appealing way to back Krejcikova is on the game handicap. Krejcikova to win with a -2.5 game handicap is 11/102.11

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