-
Swiatek a weak tournament favourite
-
First time SW19 women's winner likely in 2023
-
15.529/2 Jabeur is one of Dan's players to watch
Market unsure of Swiatek on grass
There is a good chance of a new name being engraved on the winner's trophy this year.
The 2022 winner Elena Rybakina is struggling with her fitness, and we have to go back to 2014 (Petra Kvitova) to find a winner who is likely to be in the finalised draw when it takes place on Friday morning UK time.
With world number one Iga Swiatek uneasy as tournament favourite at 4.94/1, followed by Rybakina 6.611/2 and Aryna Sabalenka 6.86/1, it's clear that the outright market doesn't have an overwhelming favourite for victory at the current time.
Grass should be the biggest leveller between Swiatek and the field - certainly compared to clay and probably hard court too - and this has resulted in her pre-tournament price being much bigger than it was at Roland Garros a month ago.
Swiatek had a scare in her opening warm-up match for SW19, dropping the first set to the veteran German grass court specialist Tatjana Maria in Bad Homburg, but did ease through with a bagel final set eventually.
This, plus a relatively uninspiring grass-court record for a world number one across the last couple of years, hardly inspires market confidence.
Rybakina with fitness doubts
This is also the case for Rybakina, with those fitness doubts, and Sabalenka, who was defeated by Kudermetova in Berlin last week.
I think Sabalenka has the tools to win Wimbledon, but she is 1-4 in Grand Slam semi-finals, and lost as a heavy pre-match favourite to Karolina Muchova at the French Open recently at that stage.
Enough Gauff - players to avoid
With such a condensed field of next-tier players, it's important to work out who you're likely to want to draw a line through.
Cori Gauff is one, following an uninspiring 2023 and her bagel loss to Ekaterina Alexandrova in Berlin recently. The aforementioned Muchova hasn't played since she lost in that French Open final to Swiatek, and hasn't been high level on grass previously either.
Caroline Garcia is struggling with consistency, failing to win 3+ matches since the start of March.
Further, the high-potential Mirra Andreeva (currently playing qualifiers) appears to be supported by some punters but she has never played a main draw grass court match, and was quoted as saying: "It's pretty tough for me to get used to the grass."
Beatriz Haddad Maia retired from her match today in Eastbourne, while Ludmillla Samsonova did so in Hertogenbosch recently. Belinda Bencic is another fitness doubt, as is Paula Badosa.
Veterans Karolina Pliskova and Victoria Azarenka have had a poor run of results of late.
Jabeur and Kvitova pick up support
While I'm negative on quite a few players, I'm more positive on Ons Jabeur 15.529/2. She has excellent grass court data, was runner-up here last year and has the ability to go one better potentially. I'll be keeping an eye on her performances at Eastbourne this week.
There are also some 'form horses' coming into the event. Czech veteran Petra Kvitova, who has been so effective on grass through her career, won the Berlin warm-up event without dropping a set and has been backed into the same price as Jabeur at 15.529/2.
Jelena Ostapenko 32.031/1 also has a grass title this season, from Birmingham. The Latvian has superb medium-term grass-court data, and if she can avoid disasters on serve, looks to have a better chance than many of those at a similar price.
Finally, Alexandrova 65.064/1 has won a lot of matches of late on grass. A quick-surface specialist, she reached the semi-final of Berlin and won in Hertogenbosch, and again has excellent medium-term grass data.
These are the players I'll be watching out for during Friday's draw. I'll be returning over the weekend to discuss that and note any outright selections.