Wimbledon Tips: Djokovic head and shoulders above the competition and justified favourite for five in a row

• Djokovic set to dominate the field

• Doubts still over Alcaraz despite Queen's title

• Many next tier contenders with doubts surrounding them

Djokovic odds-on to continue Wimbledon dominance

Seven Wimbledon titles. Four in a row. Yes, we are talking about Wimbledon 2023 odds-on favourite Novak Djokovic, who has dominated SW19 for a number of years now, and is statistically on grass, far ahead of anyone else on the ATP Tour over the last couple of years.

Djokovic is running at almost 115% combined service/return points won on grass in the last two years, elite numbers which are not far off 10% above any of the main contenders for the title, and he's also got the individual highest service points won and return points won figures compared to the top 20 players in the outright market.

Particularly on return, Djokovic has a big edge, winning over 41% of return points on grass during this time period, and on a surface where break point chances are often few and far between, this should enable the Serb to earn wins with minimal fuss, expending less energy than his rivals.

People may point to a lack of preparation for the tournament - he hasn't been in competitive action since the French Open - but this schedule is exactly the same as last year where he again picked up the Wimbledon title. It's what seems to work for Djokovic and historical evidence suggests we shouldn't doubt that.

The Betfair Exchange outright market agrees, with Djokovic trading at a current 1.758/11 to win a fifth consecutive Wimbledon title, and while a solid odds-on price in a 128-man field probably blows the mind of some less regular readers.

It really is difficult to dispute given his dominance over the rest of the tour on grass over recent years.

Alcaraz still unproven on grass

Only one other player's odds are in single figures, and that is Carlos Alcaraz. The Spanish phenom is 5.04/1 to pick up his first Wimbledon title, and will likely continue to pick up market support following his title at Queen's Club last week.

However, there's a caveat here - Alcaraz didn't beat a single top 15 opponent, and was close to the exit door against Arthur Rinderknech in round one.

If you're keen on backing the world number one, imagine what Alcaraz's price for Wimbledon would be if he had lost to Rinderknech at Queen's. I think given how unproven he is on grass, it's tough to want to keep Alcaraz onside here.

Sinner and Medvedev head next tier

Every other player in the outright market is priced well in excess of 20.019/1.

Daniil Medvedev 32.031/1 should enjoy the quick conditions but comes into Wimbledon with no form, while Jannik Sinner 30.029/1 retired last time out in Halle and also has little in the way of recent results.

Stefanos Tsitsipas is also out of form and has made a very dubious decision to play this week which surely won't help with his fatigue levels as Wimbledon progresses.

Further, Alexander Zverev is still to reach his previous peak, in my opinion, while last year's runner-up Nick Kyrgios is a major fitness doubt, as is 2021 runner-up Matteo Berrettini.

Holger Rune has little grass-court pedigree, as does Casper Ruud, while Taylor Fritz has underwhelmed in recent warm-up events but does have far more of a track record on the surface.

Rublev and De Minaur possible long-shot bets

So, given these doubts over many second tier contenders, there could well be scope for a player to come through the draw and end up winning a quarter.

Could Andrey Rublev finally get past a Grand Slam quarter-final? He's fairly friendless in the market but looks big at 120.0119/1, while Alex De Minaur has excellent grass-court data and was extremely competitive in the Queen's Club final against Alcaraz, where both players had two break point chances apiece.

In addition, the likes of Sebastian Korda and Frances Tiafoe come into the event with decent surface form, so this discussion should hopefully give you some thoughts on which players to look out for in Friday's draw.

Following this, I'll be returning over the weekend to run through the draw and finalise any outright selections, which will probably be either back-to-lay or quarter winner selections given Djokovic's likely dominance of yet another Wimbledon.

Read Stephen Tudor on why Djokovic will fall short