Wimbledon Men's Singles Day 7 Tips: Shapovalov generously priced to see off Safiullin

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Novak Djokovic is going to be very tough to beat

The fourth round of the men's singles gets underway and Dan Weston previews the pick of the action while recommending his best bet....

  • Plenty of talking points following a dramatic Saturday

  • Market reacting to improving Bublik

  • Safiullin's journey to end at hands of Shapovalov


Djokovic's chances improve despite rest day

Where do we start? The underarm serve from Alejandro Davidovich Fokina at 8-8 in the final set tiebreak against Holger Rune, which he went on to lose 10-8? The resurgence of Matteo Berrettini, who defeated Alexander Zverev in straight sets?

Carlos Alcaraz getting tested more than anticipated by Nicolas Jarry? Or perhaps the tiebreak drama in the Jiri Lehecka versus Tommy Paul match, and Chris Eubanks' win over Chris O'Connell?

All told, it was a superb Saturday at SW19, and it has made it even more likely that Novak Djokovic will ease to the title. There is little evidence that anyone else has the level, or the longevity, to seriously test the Serb.

Sinner joins Djokovic as heavy Sunday favourite

Djokovic is back in action on Sunday against Hubert Hurkacz, and is priced at just 1.081/12 to get the better of the Pole. It's a measure of Djokovic's dominance here, with his unbeaten run now at over 30 matches at Wimbledon, that it's difficult to dispute this price.

However, even shorter-priced than Djokovic on Sunday is Jannik Sinner against Daniel Elahi Galan, who probably didn't even anticipate getting to this stage himself before the tournament.

While the draw has opened up for the Columbian, he should benefit from a big rise up the rankings after Wimbledon, but this should be where his journey ends with Sinner likely to be far too good.

Bublik and Rublev meet in repeat of Halle final

The Andrey Rublev versus Alexander Bublik match is a repeat of the Halle final several weeks ago which Bublik won in the final set. That day, Rublev was priced just shy of 1.705/7, but is markedly bigger here at 1.9420/21.

Bublik's serve was firing that day, winning 91% of first serve points, and that's probably going to be pretty unsustainable again. However, the Kazakh's record on grass is excellent and there's not a lot of evidence from the numbers that today's market price is much out of line.

Shapovalov a big step up for Safiullin

Probably the best spot of the day is Denis Shapovalov against Roman Safiullin, with Shapovalov looking generously priced at a current 1.684/6. There really hasn't been much evidence that Safiullin possesses the tools to get to this stage on grass, and his one win in Mallorca (against a player ranked outside the top 200) was his only career main tour win on the surface prior to Wimbledon.

Safiullin has benefited from a nice run of opposition in the last two rounds, beating Corentin Moutet and Guido Pella, but Shapovalov should be a big step up.

I don't really understand why Shapovalov was half this price against Liam Broady, who has shown more aptitude on grass than Safiullin. I make Shapovalov the pick here.

Back Shapovalov @ 1.684/6

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Back Denis Shapovalov at 1.684/6

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