Wimbledon Day Five Men's Tips: Garin a vulnerable favourite against Martinez Portero

Serbian Tennis Player Novak Djokovic
Novak Djokovic is a heavy favourite to defeat Denis Kudla...

The men's singles at Wimbledon moves to the third round stage today with eight matches on the schedule. Our tennis columnist, Dan Weston, returns to give his thoughts...

"We don't have much grass court data on the two players, but if this was played on hard or indoor hard court, I wouldn't price it like the market has. Martinez Portero +5.5 games is 1.728/11 with the Sportsbook, which looks a viable spot in my view."

Djokovic outright price consistent at odds-on

Wimbledon finally caught up with the schedule yesterday meaning that we have just the eight third round matches in the top half of the draw. Action again gets underway at 11:00 UK time.

Following the first two rounds, Novak Djokovic is still 1.705/7 to lift the trophy after yesterday's action, with Daniil Medvedev 9.417/2 and Roger Federer 12.5 after straight-set victories. I find it difficult to support Federer at these prices, and it will be interesting to see how he fares against Cameron Norrie tomorrow, who has had a strong grass-court season this year.

Djokovic is a 1.021/50 favourite over Denis Kudla today, although I think he should be a little bigger given Kudla's historical grass court results. However, I'm obviously in complete agreement that Djokovic should be expected to get the job done over the American today.

Shapovalov a strong favourite to defeat Murray

One of the other shorter-priced favourites on the card is Denis Shapovalov at 1.3130/100, for his match with Andy Murray. This match probably is a good illustration of the difference in mindset between a fairly efficient market on the Exchange, and the emotional judgement of neutrals, and possibly, commentators.

I think most non-bettors would give Murray a far greater chance than around 25% against the Canadian, but that's roughly where he is at with the market right now, and I think that's broadly correct.

At this stage of their careers, there's reasonable statistical evidence to assert that Shapovalov is the better player by a reasonable distance and his walkover win against Pablo Andujar in round two was exactly what he needed after a five-setter against Philipp Kohlschreiber in the opening round.

Murray has generally struggled on the main tour since it resumed last summer but also not found matters easy at SW19 this year either. On Wednesday night, he needed everything to fight back from 2-1 down in sets to beat Oscar Otte in five, and I think it would need Murray to roll back the years to some extent to get an underdog victory today.

Garin over-rated by market against Martinez Portero

Christian Garin is slightly bigger at 1.402/5 than Shapovalov for his match against Pedro Martinez Portero - I just don't understand this price.

Garin is mediocre generally away from clay and has struggled to get past two Challenger level opponents in the opening two rounds, needing nine sets when a solid pre-match favourite in both matches.

We don't have much grass court data on the two players, but if this was played on hard or indoor hard court, I wouldn't price it like the market has. Martinez Portero +5.5 games is 1.728/11 with the Sportsbook, which looks a viable spot in my view.

Khachanov capable of defeating Tiafoe

Finally, the other market price I don't really agree with is Karen Khachanov as a 2.427/5 underdog versus Frances Tiafoe. If the match was played on hard/indoor hard, I'd have Khachanov as favourite, while the duo have very similar longer-term grass numbers. It will be interesting to see how this match plays out given clear market support on Tiafoe.

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Follow Dan on Twitter @TennisRatings

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