Wimbledon Day Eight Tips: Back Paul to take set in Alcaraz win at 11/10

• Alcaraz's level has been variable so far

• Paul is playing career best tennis

• How to back defending champion at 11/102.11

It wouldn't be fair to say that Carlos Alcaraz is struggling to defend his Wimbledon crown, but it certainly hasn't been easy.

The Spaniard has had to work for wins in all four of his matches so far and the in-form Tommy Paul may well prove to be his toughest assignment yet.

Paul is on a nine-match winning streak, having won Queens in the build-up to this year's event, and he has a decent record against the phenomenal Alcaraz.

Nervous energy

The greatest players of the previous generation - Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer - made defending Grand Slam titles look easy. However, it is anything but easy.

On arriving back at Wimbledon, Alcaraz remarked that he had never felt so nervous for a practice session. This nervous energy has shown itself throughout his matches to date.

Against Mark Lajal and Aleksandar Vukic, Alcaraz had to take the scenic route to get a straight sets win with both leading by a break in the opening set.

His match with Frances Tiafoe was fascinating. For the majority of the opening four sets, Alcaraz looked flat and constricted by his environment. Of course, Tiafoe played well, but it was bewildering to see Alcaraz constrained by the pressure.

Alcaraz was on that occasion able to wake up just in time but he rode his luck in that fourth set and could easily have been on the end of a defeat had Tiafoe landed on the right side of fine margines. Buoyed by surviving the pressure, Alcaraz kicked up a gear, showing his class in a one sided fifth set.

There was a further sign of vulnerability in his following match with Ugo Humbert. In the third and fourth sets Alcaraz was in a dogfight, but he found a way to get through it as the great players typically do.

Career best form

Paul has had a career of constant improvement but this season his level has been eye catching.

The American won titles in Dallas and Queens Club, made the final in Delray Beach, and reached semi-finals at both Indian Wells and Rome.

On grass, he appears to be playing his best tennis. In each interview that Paul has given during his victorious winning run he has said that he loves the grass, that he is playing well on it and having a lot of fun.

He knows how to beat Alcaraz, having defeated him twice before and splitting sets when losing to him in their most recent encounter last year in Cincinnati.

Paul is able to match his movement and plays an intense, controlled type of tennis that counteracts the ultra aggression of the Alcaraz game. He has also expressed that this match will be determined by who serves better, as both will go for their shots.

What I like about Paul is that his game is steady and reliable, and not really prone to ups and downs. That makes him a strong candidate to keep Carlitos honest in this match, especially as the Spanish wonderkid is showing such strong variance from set to set in his matches.

If Carlos reaches the levels he is capable of then he should have too much for Paul, and I expect that he will show enough unplayable spells to prevail in this one. However, his dips have been frequent so far this tournament and Paul is capable of pushing him beyond three sets.

11/102.11 on Alcaraz to win and both players to win a set is the value pick.

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