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Worrying signs for Djokovic
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Rune knows the buttons to press
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12/5 too big in the circumstances
In my last preview of a Djokovic match I expected him to struggle but ultimately get the job done against Alexei Popyrin.
After losing the first set Djokovic made the necessary adjustments to drag out enough errors from Popyrin whilst boxing him from a distance. The Australian threw the kitchen sink at his opponent but the Serbian handled it with relative comfort.
However, Holger Rune is not a player Djokovic will enjoy seeing across the net from him on Monday.
Is Novak fit?
I find it hard to believe Djokovic despite confident assertions in reply to questions about his condition. There have been very moments in his past two matches against Popyrin and the unheralded Jacob Fearnley where his movement has not looked at all right.
He is wearing a protective sleeve on his right knee, and is clearly struggling when he's stretched into making certain changes of direction.
Fortunately for Novak he is smarter than the average bear. He is fully aware of how to handle opponents that will play in a rhythmic or one dimensional manner, and that are prone to dropping their level.
Djokovic did not face a break point after conceding the first set against Popyrin which says as much about the Australian's lack of ability on return than it does about his own serving quality.
Novak picked the moments to boost his energy and to apply pressure on Popyrin. As expected his opponent wilted.
Djokovic isn't at 100% and admitted as much in his post-match comments saying, "Each match it's getting better, my movement and my confidence for reaching and sliding is improving. I definitely felt better than last round and I hope that continues through each match."
Why Rune?
Rune is a different beast to the likes of Popyrin and Fearnley. The 21-year old has a spiky personality but he enjoys winning and he relishes big matches.
His bravery is incredibly impressive when matches get tight. This is when he does his best work. The bigger the challenge, the greater the fight.
This mentality stands him in good stead for a fruitful career. In the short term, his game can still be scrappy and he is doing his best to iron out the technical kinks that are holding him back.
His lack of fear makes him very dangerous for Djokovic.
Also, he has shown he is quite handy on a grass court making the semifinals of Queens last season before marching to the Wimbledon quarterfinals.
I often liken him to Andy Murray with whom he not only shares a similar competitive fire but also similar tools that allow him to play with intelligence and variety.
Djokovic has been able to manage opponents possessing limited talent in his matches so far. However, Rune has far more about him and is unlikely to be exposed by running out of ideas, patience or consistency in rallies. That is dangerous for a Djokovic that is not up to par.
Rune has shown growing pains this season as he tries to develop his game. However, since the start of Wimbledon he has been playing with a swagger and confidence that had been missing for some time.
Tricky matchup
Even in the best of health Rune is an opponent that Djokovic has struggled with. Djokovic narrowly leads their head to head 3/2, but none of the matches has been won in straight sets.
Significantly, Rune beat Djokovic in the final of the Paris Masters event and in the quarterfinal of Rome - two important tournaments.
Furthermore, they regularly train together with both providing the other with a unique playing style with which to learn from. However, as Djokovic is limited physically this familiarity is likely to suit Rune who will know which buttons he can press to take advantage of Djokovic discomforts.
Rune has the game, but more importantly the psychology, to overcome Djokovic and I feel 12/53.40 is a value price for the Dane to trouble the sport's top dog.