Wimbledon Daily Double: Van Rijthoven can end Opelka's grass campaign

Sean Calvert
28 June 2022

Van Rijthoven has been in great form on the grass this summer

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Round two of the men's singles at Wimbledon 2022 begins on Wednesday and Sean Calvert is back with another daily double on day three...

"Van Rijthoven has amassed some seriously good stats in his breakout season on the grass, with 92.4% holds and 19% breaks equalling a hold/break total of 111.4 and a combined service points won/return points won total of 108.3"

We went one from two again on Tuesday when Arthur Rinderknech took two sets off Denis Shapovalov, but Zizou Bergs was unable to grab the third set from Jack Draper and lost in straight sets.

Round two of the men's singles begins on Wednesday at Wimbledon 2022 and historically this has been slightly better for underdog backers than round one, with an average of 27% of them winning in the last eight editions, compared to just 23% in round one.

A big 61% of the matches in round two have featured at least one tie break in this round in the last eight editions compared to the tournament average of 55%.

Murray with a strong record against Isner

British fans have good reason to expect Andy Murray to progress against John Isner, with Murray having won all nine of their career meetings and given that Murray was priced between 1.071/14 and 1.292/7 for the last four of them is he value at 1.422/5 now?

Well, they've never met on grass, but Murray has held serve 99% of the time in the eight matches that I have stats for, winning 10% more service points than Isner and 10% more return points, too.

In Murray's last 10 main level matches on grass his combined service points won/return points won total is 103, while for his last 50 matches it's 108, so there's been a clear drop-off.

Isner will be tired after a five-setter in round one and Murray should be winning this, but it's hard to trust his fitness these days, so I'll pass on Murray.

Tie breaks likely when Humbert and Ruud clash

Not so long ago, Ugo Humbert was number 25 in the world.

Now, after a poor grass swing so far and zero ranking points on offer he's down to number 125 in the live rankings.

He can't do anything about that slump this fortnight, but he can boost his flagging confidence by beating Casper Ruud on the Norwegian's least favoured surface.

Ruud was a little fortunate to be two sets up on Albert Ramos in round one, with the latter blowing a 6-2 lead in the second set tie break and I don't think it would take that much for Ruud to exit the tournament given his lack of appetite for the surface.

"I haven't played much on grass this year, because I went for some holidays after Queen's and before coming to Wimbledon," Ruud said after beating Ramos.

The last thing that Humbert is thinking about right now is a holiday and having beaten Ruud twice in three career meetings the struggling Frenchman should fancy his chances here.

I'm not sure I could back him as short as 2.285/4 to win the match given Humbert's poor form this summer and this year in general, but tie breaks seem likely here.

Ruud has played a big 0.42 tie breaks per match on grass in his seven-match main level career and that's due to his weak return game (33% of return points won and only 15% breaks), which is similar in statistics to Humbert's.

Humbert, too, has won 33% of return points (88% holds, Ruud 86% holds) and breaks only 13% of the time on grass in his last 10 main level matches, so 3.7511/4 about a set one tie break appeals more than the price on Humbert.

For the second leg it's a choice between Tim Van Rijthoven to beat Reilly Opelka or over games in Carlos Alcaraz vs Tallon Griekspoor.

Van Rijthoven has amassed some seriously good stats in his breakout season on the grass, with 92.4% holds and 19% breaks equalling a hold/break total of 111.4 and a combined service points won/return points won total of 108.3.

That puts him way ahead of Opelka, who came to this Wimbledon having held serve just 83% of the time on grass and breaking 10% of the time.

Opelka had a handy draw in round one (as did Van Rijthoven) against Carlos Taberner, but I still very much get the sense with Opelka that he's not at all interested in what happens during the grass season.

If the Dutchman continues anything like the form we've seen from him already this summer, he should beat Opelka.

Tallon Griekspoor Halle 2022.jpg

Van Rijthoven's fellow Dutchman Tallon Griekspoor faces a big challenge in Alcaraz and as I've said several times this summer already, Griekspoor doesn't break serve enough on grass (just 10% of the time).

Alcaraz was tested severely by Jan-Lennard Struff in round one and that match may well have done Alcaraz the world of good as far as his prospects this fortnight are concerned and this could be a similarly decent test.

We're not sure yet how good Alcaraz can be on this surface, but with Griekspoor only winning 30% of return points and breaking hardly at all on grass the over games is possible here.

But, Wednesday's double (which you could use in the 'Bet £5 on tennis accas and get a free £5 bet' promotion) is: set one tie break in Ruud/Humbert and Van Rijthoven at 7.513/2.