Wimbledon Daily Double: Nadal set to be tested by Sonego

It was yet another one out of two on Friday when Tommy Paul won easily, but John Isner was struggling physically with what appeared to be a knee problem (and some sort of finger injury) and was a mile away from the level he showed against Andy Murray.

The marquee match of the day on Saturday is undoubtedly Nick Kyrgios vs Stefanos Tsitsipas and if you're brave enough to trust Kyrgios mentally and physically the price on the Aussie looks reasonable.

For me, Kyrgios is a better grass courter than Tsitsipas and that's borne out in the grass court stats.

If we take only this season's main level grass matches (Tsitsipas' best grass campaign by far) we find that he's still some way behind what Kyrgios has done this year.

In 2022 on grass, Kyrgios has held serve 96% of the time and broken 17% of the time (113 total) while Tsitsipas has held 86% of the time and broken 18% of the time for a 104 total.

In terms of service points won/return points won, Kyrgios is on 109 while Tsitspas is on 104, with the one caveat on this year's stats being that NK has saved a whopping 84% of the break points against him.

For me, Kyrgios is a better grass courter than Tsitsipas and that's borne out in the grass court stats

Kyrgios has also saved 83% of the break points against him in his three main level matches against Tsitsipas (3-0 to Kyrgios), one of which came on grass only a few weeks ago in Halle when Tsitsipas won just 42% of his second serve points (Kyrgios won 75% of his).

In that three-match series, Kyrgios has held serve 94% of the time and leads the combined service points won/return points won totals by 105 to 96.

And it's NK that looks to be coming into prime form right now, having crushed Queen's finalist Filip Krajinovic without even facing a break point, so if I hadn't been burned by Kyrgios on a few occasions over the years I'd probably back him to win this match.

He can't be trusted not to have a meltdown though or for his body to let him down as it did here at Wimbledon a year ago and that's partly because he's essentially a part-time player these days.

This bottom half of the draw is so lacking in seeds that there are some names on the schedule today that you wouldn't expect to see in round three of the grass court major: Daniel Elahi Galan, Liam Broady, Cristian Garin, Alex Molcan and Jason Kubler to name a few.

Elahi Galan can keep it close against Nakashima

Elahi Galan has beaten a not-yet-fit-in-2022 Dominik Koepfer and then got a walkover when Roberto Bautista Agut withdrew and I'm not keen on Brandon Nakashima as a heavy favourite here.

Nakashima is usually at his best counter-punching against bigger hitters (such as Shapovalov in the last round) but when he has to create his own pace, as he will here, I'm not so sure about him.

Eight of Nakashima's nine matches in the main draw of majors so far have gone past 34.5 games (win or lose)

Elahi Galan has only played three main level grass court matches in his career (beat Coria here last year and Koepfer this year) but he's not terrible on this surface by any means and he pushed Lorenzo Sonego to 39 games here 12 months ago.

Nakashima has only broken serve 14% of the time on grass so far in his eight-match main level career (5-3 win/loss) and with that in mind and the assumption that Elahi Galan isn't just simply going to roll over here in mind, the total games line of 34.5 is interesting.

Eight of Nakashima's nine matches in the main draw of majors so far have gone past 34.5 games (win or lose) and I like this play of over games at 1.9110/11.

Typically, the week after I backed Jenson Brooksby at 26.025/1 to win Eastbourne and he lost in round one, he's started to find his grass form, but similarly to Nakashima he's usually better when having pace to work with.

Cristian Garin, like Elahi Galan, won't roll over and he isn't a massive hitter, so this might be interesting and possibly another one to consider over games in.

Garin hasn't dropped a set yet this Wimbledon and his stats aren't miles away from Brooksby's on grass (7-8 win/loss at main level and a hold/break total of 100), so this could be a battle for the American.

The one thing in his favour here is the funky drop shot he uses and that should work pretty well against a baseliner like Garin.

I'm hoping that my outrights Alex De Minaur and Taylor Fritz will progress, with De Minaur facing a British left-hander for the second round running in Liam Broady and ADM should win that, but Alex Molcan might be tricky for Fritz.

The Slovak has Marjan Vajda at his side these days and in the five main level grass matches he's played so far, his stats are excellent, although obviously from a very small sample size.

He's held serve 91% of the time and broken 22% of the time, but he's saved a huge 83% of the break points against him.

Fritz still needs to up his game a little on return (only 16% breaks this past 12 months on grass) but he should be too powerful for Molcan. The 3-1 to Fritz looks a reasonable option in that match.

Nadal in need of improvement

Rafael Nadal is still searching for his best form after two unconvincing performances so far this Wimbledon, but he's likely to get better as he progresses, and he'll most likely be too strong for Lorenzo Sonego.

I don't expect it to be anything like easy for Nadal though, with Sonego the most dangerous opponent that Rafa has faced on grass since Roger Federer in the 2019 Wimbledon semi finals.

Rafa's stats on the grass are very good: a 113 hold/break total and a 107 combined service points won/return points won total in his last 50 main level matches on the surface.

He's won 60% of his second serve points and as this tournament progresses I'd expect to see him becoming more and more aggressive with that lefty forehand - and that can do serious damage to the weakish backhand of Sonego.

But Sonego has weapons, too, notably the big serve and forehand and if he plays his best tennis he can take this out of Nadal's hands - at least for a while.

The over 35.5 games looks a fair wager in this match at 1.84/5.

I wouldn't be surprised if veteran Richard Gasquet took the opening set against the often slow to start Botic van de Zandschulp.

The big Dutchman dropped the opening set to Gasquet in Melbourne before the Gasman was eventually forced to retire and the Frenchman still a the skillset to be a danger on grass - if he he's feeling okay physically.

And finally, how good is it to see Jason Kubler finally getting an injury-free run at a major? The former number one junior has had a nightmare time over the years with injuries and if he's not fatigued after qualies he has a real shot against Jack Sock.

So, Saturday's double (which you could use in the 'Bet £5 on tennis accas and get a free £5 bet' promotion) is: over 34.5 games in Nakashima/Elahi Galan and over 35.5 games in Nadal/Sonego at 3.24.