Wimbledon Betting Tips: Resurgent Isner can shock Sinner

Sean Calvert
30 June 2022

Isner is a danger to all now that he's negotiated the tricky opening two rounds

Join

View market

Twitter

Facebook

Round three of the men's singles at Wimbledon 2022 gets underway on Friday and Sean Calvert is back with his daily double for day five...

"If Isner serves anything like he did against Murray I see no reason why he can't beat Sinner, who doesn't look at all comfortable on grass."

The top of the men's draw are back in action on Friday at Wimbledon 2022 as they play their round three matches.

This round, over the last eight editions, has proven the best one in terms of frequency of underdog winners: 32% of them have won and that rises to 40% in the last three editions alone.

And the card looks more appealing than it has in the last day or two, with several of the eight underdogs in with realistic chances of testing or upsetting the favourites.

One is John Isner, who produced a fine display on Wednesday to record his first win in nine tries against Andy Murray, will surely break the aces world record (currently held by Ivo Karlovic) when he faces Jannik Sinner on Friday.

If he serves anything like he did against Murray I see no reason why he can't beat Sinner, who doesn't look at all comfortable on grass.

Sinner was rather fortunate in my view that Stan Wawrinka had a poor day on serve against him in round one (made just 49% of first serves) and that, combined with too many errors off the ground, allowed Sinner to take the win.

Then he had a three-hour match against the limited Mikael Ymer and hit more errors than winners and now he faces Isner, who's held serve 95% of the time on grass, winning 75% of his service points.

He won 76% of them against Murray, and a repeat of that level may be too hot for Sinner to handle at this early stage of his career on grass.

For me, Isner is vulnerable early on at Wimbledon, with the low bounce not to his liking as a really tall guy, but now that he's passed the first two rounds he's dangerous to anyone.

Sinner hasn't done enough on grass for me to be a 1.68/13 chance here and some of this price could be about Sinner's easy win over Isner in 'Davis Cup' at the end of last season.

Isner had been away from the match court for seven weeks before that match, though, as he was preparing for the birth of his third child, so I don't think that result counts for anything when it comes to assessing this match.

The only favourite that, for my money, looks a secure one is Novak Djokovic, with Tim Van Rijthoven likely, but not certain, to beat Nikoloz Basilashvili, and Tommy Paul a decent favourite against Jiri Vesely.

Norrie a short price against Johnson

Cam Norrie Queens 2021.jpg

The rest are up for grabs for me and Cam Norrie is a poor price against Steve Johnson.

The Brit is painful to watch on most surfaces, but on grass it's most unappealing, but he tends to get the job done more often than not, however long it takes.

That was the case against Jaume Munar in round two and he'll probably prey on Johnson's backhand side for long enough to beat the American, but 1.330/100 is short and Johnson has actually won 64% of his career matches at main level against left-handers.

I was made to pay for not backing Ugo Humbert to win the match when he faced Casper Ruud and again he's slight underdog against David Goffin.

Humbert beat Goffin on indoor hard in Goffin's backyard in Antwerp back in 2019, but Goffin had little time to prepare for that match after playing the Asia swing.

In terms of their respective performances on grass, well, there's not much in it in terms of their combined service points won/return points won totals (102 for Humbert and 103 for Goffin) and their hold/break totals (104 for Humbert and 105 for Goffin).

It's a pick-em really and looks priced about right on the data.

Frances Tiafoe should have beaten Alexander Bublik in Eastbourne a week or so ago when he was a set up and 4-2 ahead in the second set tie break, but from there Tiafoe won only nine more points in the match.

A quite shocking collapse (although Bublik did something similar in set one) and I couldn't back the inconsistent Tiafoe against the unfathomable Bublik in what looks an impossible match to call and is correctly priced as 50/50.

Paul can take advantage of Vesely's fatigue

Tommy Paul Wimbledon 2022.jpg

Tommy Paul has been saying that his game is perfect for grass and it looked it when he cruised past Adrian Mannarino in the last round, while Jiri Vesely was out there for almost four hours as he sneaked past Alejandro Davidovich Fokina.

Vesely beat Paul comfortably on grass at a match I watched at Wimbledon qualies in 2019 and their two main level meetings have been tight three-setters (one on hard and one on clay).

Paul won both as a 1.331/3 favourite each time at main level and now he's a 1.51/2 shot to beat Vesely on grass.

The American has a standout record of 13-5 win/loss at main level versus left-handers, with his only defeats coming to Nadal, Norrie (twice), Lopez and Gilles Muller.

Paul has a standout record of 13-5 win/loss at main level versus left-handers, with his only defeats coming to Nadal, Norrie (twice), Lopez and Gilles Muller

With that in mind, plus the fact that Vesely has a poor record after five set matches at majors, it might be worth taking Paul to be the second leg of today's double.

Vesely's career record after a five-set win at a major is as follows: 0 wins, 4 losses (1 by way of retirement, 1 walkover given.

Tie breaks likely when Otte takes on Alcaraz

Oscar Otte has had a lot of fortune in his Wimbledon draw so far, with one retirement after just four games by Christian Harrison after a virtual gimme of a round one opponent in the often-injured Peter Gojowczyk, who was most likely just here for the pay day.

If we take those two matches out of Otte's grass stats, he's only broken serve 11% of the time on grass, playing 0.42 tie breaks per set and holding serve 90% of the time.

So, in a first career meeting with Carlos Alcaraz, who's beaten two decent opponents already this Wimbledon, this lack of much of a return game (31% return points won, which is 2% better than Isner) may end up costing Otte.

Big-priced punters may well look to the set one tie break here at odds of 4.03/1, but, Friday's double (which you could use in the 'Bet £5 on tennis accas and get a free £5 bet' promotion) is: Isner to win and Paul to win at 3.7511/4.