Wimbledon Final Statistical Analysis: Djokovic set to overcome Kyrgios challenge

The Wimbledon final is set and what a 'popcorn match' this is going to be between Nick Kyrgios and Novak Djokovic.

Djokovic fans might need something stronger than popcorn in this one because one way or another this is going to be bumpy ride and it will surely generate viewing figures far higher than any final in recent memory.

That's ensured by the presence of Kyrgios, who non-tennis fans will tune in for in the likelihood of something explosive happening.

And surely it will, with two players going head-to-head that can't stand each other and it's odds-on that this will come to a head at some point on Sunday afternoon.

Kyrgios has called Djokovic "a tool" in the past on social media and the pair have opposing views on vaccinations, which Kyrgios can't help but put out there in the public domain, while Djokovic has been more guarded.

Just to recap, NK has also said: "I just feel like he has a sick obsession with wanting to be liked. I feel like he just wants to be liked so much that I just can't stand him. This whole celebration thing [blowing kisses to the crowd] that he does after matches, it's like so cringeworthy."

And: "I've played him twice and like, I'm sorry, but if you can't beat me, you're not the greatest of all time."

I can't imagine those words will bother Djokovic much, but the fact that he's yet to beat Kyrgios will annoy him and I'm sure that Kyrgios will try everything he can to get under Djokovic's skin in this match.

He used that tactic successfully against Stefanos Tsitsipas and he'll try it again. He may not be so successful against an opponent as experienced as Djokovic though.

It's a classic match-up of the big server versus the elite returner, but if we look at the last 50 main level matches on grass of this pair it's actually Djokovic that's held serve more often and won more service points than Kyrgios has (92% holds for Djokovic and 72% service points won compared to 91% and 70% for NK).

On return it's no contest, with Djokovic winning 41% of return points and breaking 28% of the time, compared with 31% and 13% for Kyrgios.

The grass Elo ratings give Djokovic almost a 300-point lead over the Aussie coming into this Wimbledon and that gives Djokovic an implied probability of almost 85% of winning this match.

The one thing in Kyrgios' favour in the stats is that he performs better on serve against current top-10 opponents than Djokovic does on this surface: 93% holds and 72% service points won in Kyrgios' eight matches (3-5 win/loss) compared to 85% and 66% for Djokovic (5-2 win/loss).

The grass Elo ratings give Djokovic almost a 300-point lead over the Aussie coming into this Wimbledon and that gives Djokovic an implied probability of almost 85% of winning this match

Kyrgios is (predictably) worse on return versus current top-10 players than versus all players, with just 9% breaks of serve (Djokovic 21%), so it's still Djokovic that has the edge in terms of combined service points won/return points won (104 to 99).

That's a small sample size of course and with Wimbledon 2022 once again being pretty slow in terms of the numbers on service holds (just 81% again this year so far) it's hard to see Kyrgios winning three sets (most likely all tie breaks).

For me, Kyrgios lacks the baseline quality to beat someone like Djokovic over five sets and he was rather fortunate and definitely flattered to beat Cristian Garin in straight sets, with Garin leading by a break in set one and by 5-3 in the third set tie break.

Garin won just eight points fewer than Kyrgios in the match and Kyrgios scored 10% fewer points on second serve than Garin (42% compared to 52%).

He also won fewer second serve points than his opponent against Brandon Nakashima and just 2% more than Paul Jubb when they clashed in round one.

One thing in Kyrgios' favour is the extra days off that he'll have had compared to Djokovic after he was handed a walkover by Rafa Nadal in the semis.

That will allow the body to rest after a lot of tennis lately and remember, Kyrgios doesn't play full seasons and isn't used to such exertion in a short space of time.

The other side of the coin there is that Kyrgios has had more time to get nervous and he admitted he only got an hour's sleep after being told of Nadal's withdrawal on Friday night.

I expected Djokovic to be a little shorter than 1.271/4 for this match, but the Serb hasn't been in his best form so far this tournament, so the layers are being a little cautious here.

Against Cam Norrie in the semis, Djokovic started really poorly, and he admitted afterwards that the nerves got to him a bit, so we might have a bit of an edgy start to this match.

For me that may favour Kyrgios, who can win games with his serve alone, while Djokovic might take a while to find his match rhythm.

The bigger-priced betting options that are in my shortlist for this match are: Djokovic to lose set one and win the match at 4.57/2, Djokovic to win it 3-1 at 3.7511/4 and Kyrgios to win the first set 7-6 at 6.05/1.

I think the set score is risky because we don't know how much nerves will affect the players at the start, so the 3-1 to Djokovic looks the bet to me.