Wimbledon Tips: How to find value bets on the Betfair Exchange

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Tennis, like any other sport, is subject to the dynamics of chance, skill, and strategy.

Profitable betting on Tennis, consequently, requires the ability to predict odds based on a complex interplay of historical data and real-time scoring. The challenge lies in deciphering this information and translating it into successful betting or trading strategy.

The objective? To beat the market by predicting better odds for the player. Here is how I predict the winner of a tennis match.

Understanding value

Key to profitable betting is the concept of the value bet. A value bet involves determining the odds that a player should have and comparing them to the odds the market currently offers.

If you can accurately determine the real odds of a player winning, you can spot when the market is undervaluing or overvaluing a player, creating profitable betting opportunities.

This difference between your assessment and the market's is the value that you're betting on. Over time, consistently placing value bets can result in substantial profits.

Building a tennis betting model

So, how do you ascertain the real odds?

You start by building a tennis betting model. This model can be constructed using key statistics such as the number of first serves made, points won on the first serve, returns made. The objective is to determine the probability of a player winning a point on their serve.

With a bit of mathematical skill, you can calculate the chance of a player winning a point on their serve by combining their first serve percentage and the points they win when their first serve goes in.

You can then use a similar process to calculate the likelihood of a player winning a point on their second serve.

For instance, if a player gets their first serve in 62% of the time and wins a point on that first serve 79% of the time, they have roughly a 50% chance of winning a point on their first serve.

If the same player wins 57% of their second serves and makes a second serve 38% of the time, they have about a 22% chance of winning a point on their second serve. By combining these probabilities, we can estimate that this player will win a point on their serve about 70% of the time.

If you need clarification about how I did these calculations, more information is available on the Bet Angel website. The statistics that I use for each tennis player, are freely available via the ATP or WTA web sites.

Extrapolating data

While winning a point is the building block of winning a match, it's only part of the story. If you can calculate the chances of a player winning a point, you can extrapolate this data to determine their chances of winning a game, a set, and eventually, the match.

In simple terms, if we know the chance of a player winning a point on serve is 70%, we can say that the chance of them winning a game without dropping a point is 70% for each time they serve, and they have to do this four times.

In probability terms, that's four to the power of 70%. Converting this to decimal odds, the chance of winning a game without dropping a point is 4.20.

Your problem is that you must do this calculation for every possible scoreline and path through the match.

When carried out manually, this process can be complicated and time-consuming. Adjusting these calculations for fluctuations during a match, the difference between players serving or returning capabilities, or accounting for factors like player injuries can make this process even more convoluted.

The value of Tennis Trader

That's where Tennis Trader on the Bet Angel platform comes in handy. This tool simplifies the process by taking your basic statistical inputs and projecting the odds for various match outcomes.

Tennis Trader allows you to adjust these values in real-time, providing insights into their likely influence on the match. This flexibility enables you to understand what the market is telling you and how it is adjusting information into each player's service game.

This tool is particularly beneficial for traders who can use it to understand market movements better. Moreover, by adjusting these values, you can also identify value bets, further refining your betting strategy.

Win consistently

Every sport has its key metrics, and in Tennis, that's the chance of a player winning a point on serve.

A winning tennis betting strategy involves a detailed understanding of match statistics and a skill for calculating odds. However, that's much easier nowadays with intelligent tools like Tennis Trader to enhance prediction ease and accuracy.

While this might seem daunting at first, with practice and a bit of a strategic approach, you'll get a better idea of what you are looking at. Remember, it's not just about winning a single bet but about consistently finding value over the long term.

After all, just like in Tennis, it's not about winning every point, but about winning the match.

Read tennis betting expert Dan Weston's Wimbledon men's singles preview