ATP Bastad, ATP Hamburg & ATP Newport Tips: Garin can take advantage of weak draw in Sweden

American Tennis Player Sam Querrey
Sam Querrey leads the market in Newport...

Following Wimbledon, the ATP Tour action continues apace over the coming week with three events taking place in Bastad, Hamburg and Newport. Dan Weston returns to discuss the week ahead...

"While I think Ruud is the better clay-courter compared to Garin and has more future upside, his draw is far more stacked and based on general market pricing, I think that Garin’s outright price will settle at just above the 6.05/1 mark, which looks like better value given the draw."

Tsitsipas surprisingly on the entry list for Hamburg

After Wimbledon, there is one final grass tournament of the season, taking place in Newport, USA. I'm always a little confused to the point of this tournament after the surface Grand Slam, but it's been a regular on the calendar for years. There's also the opportunity for clay-courters to pick up some valuable ranking points in Bastad and Hamburg with the final part of the clay season soon to conclude, before around six months of hard and indoor hard court events.

Action gets underway around lunchtime UK time on Monday in the two clay events, with the Hamburg tournament (500 level) having the highest field quality. Stefanos Tsitsipas is the top seed in Germany and it's quite surprising that he was on the entry list for this in the week after a Slam.

Tsitsipas and Carreno-Busta market favourites

In theory, this event should be pretty straightforward for the Greek, who has a considerable ability differential between him and the field. This is acknowledged by the outright market, who has chalked Tsitsipas up at 1.715/7 to win the tournament. Pablo Carreno-Busta, likely to settle around the 7.006/1 mark before his first match, is the second favourite and the only other player priced below 10.009/1 in what looks a rather top-heavy event.

With these two market favourites drawn apart in the top and bottom half of the draws, it's really down to lower-ranked players to cause an upset to stop there being a Tsitsipas versus Carreno-Busta final. The likes of Federico Delbonis, Dusan Lajovic and Filip Krajinovic among the unseeded players, will be the most realistic options.

Ruud with tricky draw in Bastad

Over in Bastad, a 250 event, there's some decent quality among the seeded players with Casper Ruud, Fabio Fognini and Christian Garin all very capable clay-courters, with the other seed, John Millman, less so. Ruud is the tournament favourite at around 4.03/1 and is the top seed.

I'm really looking forward to Ruud's potential second round match against the Danish wild card Holger Rune, who has done very well in Challenger events in recent months. Some readers may not have heard of Rune, but he looks to be a young player on a steep upward curve.

With Lorenzo Musetti also waiting as a potential quarter-final opponent, Ruud will need to do it the hard way if he is to win in Sweden this week, and I'm not a fan of the market price.

Garin in weaker half of the draw

Quarter three is very weak, with no renowned players who are particularly strong on the surface in that bracket, which makes life more straightforward for second seed Christian Garin. Marco Cecchinato and Pedro Martinez Portero offer threats to the Chilean in quarter four, but he'd be favourite against both and for sure, any player in quarter three in the latter stages - in the last 12 months on clay, Garin is running at around 103% combined service/return points won on clay.

While I think Ruud is the better clay-courter compared to Garin and has more future upside, his draw is far more stacked and based on general market pricing, I think that Garin's outright price will settle at just above the 6.05/1 mark, which looks like better value given the draw.

Querrey favourite for final grass court event of the year

I'll be delighted when the grass season ends this weekend with it being extremely difficult to use any grass court data this year given the lack of grass matches in 2020 and small samples this year. Given this, please forgive me if I'm uninspired by the week ahead in Newport.

Conditions there are a little on the slow side for grass courts, but it should still play pretty quick compared to a hard court. Sam Querrey, based on long-term grass numbers, looks a legitimate favourite at around 5.409/2 but it's a tough outright market to call. Kevin Anderson, if fit, represents a threat at a likely market price around the 11.0010/1 mark but does have those fitness doubts while it's rare to see Ivo Karlovic towards the top of an outright market these days, but if you think the Croatian can ace his way to victory in Newport, he can be backed at around 41.0040/1 based on general market pricing.


Follow Dan on Twitter @TennisRatings

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