Garcia outright favourite after Tuesday victory
Due to having already reached the semi-finals, Caroline Garcia has moved ahead of Iga Swiatek at the top of the US Open outright market, priced at 3.39/4 at the time of writing, marginally ahead of Swiatek at 3.412/5. However, should Swiatek get the win today against Jessica Pegula, her odds will markedly shorten.
Pegula needing to serve well to negate Swiatek threat
Swiatek's market price of 1.528/15 against Pegula is more than double that of any of her other matches in the tournament so far, and Pegula is the first opponent Swiatek has faced who is currently ranked inside the top 50 - it's probably not a surprise that the Pole has breezed through the early rounds.
Pegula has had a slightly trickier route to the quarter-finals, but has had similarly impressive results across the four matches - this is obviously Swiatek's toughest test here in New York to date. Pegula's serve in particular has been a real focal point in the event so far, winning almost 70% of service points, and Swiatek's return game will need to change this if there isn't to be a shock result tonight.
Based on 2022 hard court data, the price looks about right to me, and Swiatek again has that edge on return which has caused opposition so much difficulty over the last year or two.
If she is going to win tonight, Pegula will need to negate that Swiatek return, which she hasn't been able to do in their two meetings this year, winning less than 50% of service points.
Sabalenka aiming to break trend of underdog victories
The second quarter-final on the schedule sees Aryna Sabalenka as a slight 1.8910/11 market favourite against Karolina Pliskova. Last season, in two semi-finals in big events (Wimbledon and Montreal) Pliskova won against Sabalenka as a pre-match underdog, and rather strangely, all four career meetings between the duo have been won by the pre-match underdog.
Both players have been close to the exit door in the event so far but survived, with Pliskova the more impressive server and Sabalenka much the better returner. Overall, Sabalenka has the edge on points and games won percentages in the four matches here to date.
On hard court this year, the duo have a similar serve/return dynamic but are much more level in terms on combined numbers, so again it's tricky to dispute market pricing. Sabalenka just about merits favourite status, but there really isn't much in it - so it should be a cracking, competitive match.