US Open Women's Final Preview and Tip: Back Sabalenka to cover game handicap at 1/1

• Sabalenka powering her way through the draw

• Pegula to play her first major final

• Evens bet appeals on Sabalenka to cover game handicap

Aryna Sabalenka has lived up to her pre-tournament billing as the favourite. The 2023 runner-up looks likely - priced at 1/31.33 - to go a step further this year by defeating Jessica Pegula, a player she is very familiar with.

The finalists met in Cincinnati on the weekend before the start of the US Open, and on that occasion it was a comfortable win for Sabalenka.

A few weeks later, not much has changed and if anything the conditions favour Sabalenka more so in New York than they did on the ultra quick Cincinnati courts.

Sabalenka too much power

The way Sabalenka has been both crushing and controlling the ball it is tough to see how she won't defeat Pegula here, unless the nerves get to her.

There are no secrets remaining in this match-up. Sabalenka hits too big and too consistently for Pegula to be able to counter-punch and re-direct the pace of her opponent's ball.

That formula is very successful. Just ask Iga Swiatek who the American beat in the quarter-finals. However, the notable flaw in the Swiatek game is that her forehand can buckle under the right kind of aggressive pressure is not applicable to Sabalenka.

Sabalenka will be on the front foot throughout this match, striking powerful hits that don't allow Pegula to pick off her opponent with precision timing and control.

The head to head is dominated by Sabalenka, who leads by five wins to two, with the two defeats arriving in very difficult conditions that offered an excuse for Sabalenka - Cincinnati back in 2020 and in Cancun last year. If Sabalenka isn't feeling the conditions you will know about it as her error count will be off the charts.

It will be a concern for Pegula that the courts in Cincinnati were tailor made to her game, yet Sabalenka was still able to find enough time on the ball to play the match on her terms. With even more time to pick her spots I expect this final will also be on the racket of Sabalenka.

First major final for Pegula

The one possible glimmer of hope for Pegula in this match is how Sabalenka handles her nerves. For all her success, Sabalenka is known to become anxious at times and possibly she will feel the pressure of achieving her first US Open title.

In their Cincinnati final Sabalenka failed to serve it out at the first time of asking, and similarly struggled at the first time of asking in her semi-final on Thursday.

However, this will be her fourth Grand Slam final and she has an advantage of experience over Pegula who is untested in this situation. This is the 30-year old American's first taste of a major final. Her previous best showing before this tournament was a handful of quarter-finals across all Slams.

It has been a strong tournament for Pegula who was able to score a convincing win over Swiatek and recover from a set and break deficit to defeat Karolina Muchova in the semi-final.

As commendable as turning that semi-final encounter in her favour was, it must be noted that Muchova was carrying an illness and she couldn't sustain her initial level after a set and a half.

For Sabalenka in this tournament there's no-one that's really got close to hanging with her. She's won by a comfortable margin across all her matches in this tournament.

Emma Navarro pushed her closest by keeping her defeat to a four game margin, but she benefitted from a Sabalenka choke at the finishing line to keep the scoreline more respectable.

Sabalenka has won her other matches in this tournament by six, eight, five, six and nine game margins. And siding with her to clear the game handicap is the best betting angle in this final.

Comfortable H2H for Sabalenka

When Sabalenka has defeated Pegula in their head to head meetings, it has always been very comfortable. All matches they've played are recent and relevant, spanning the past four years.

In her five victories she has defeated Pegula by eight, nine, seven, five and five game margins.

Odds compilers have set the game handicap for this final at Sabalenka to win -4.5 games at 1/12.00. That has landed in each of Sabalenka's wins over Pegula, and in all but one of her matches so far in this tournament.

It is a reasonable price and it offers value for this US Open final. Back Aryna Sabalenka to win -4.5 games at 1/12.00.

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