US Open Final Tips: Back 11/5 Jannik Sinner to win in four sets

• Jannik Sinner 1.3130/100 is rightful favourite despite injury worries

• Taylor Fritz 4.03/1 has battled to reach final

• Limited data suggests this will not be over quickly

• Use Betfair's Safer Gambling during the US Open

Pre-tournament simulations become reality

Prior to the tournament, my Elo-driven simulations had Jannik Sinner 1.3130/100 winning the US Open more often than any other player, demonstrating that the draw had been kinder to him than others.

Watching the draw unfold, then, with the early exits of Alcaraz and Djokovic, and the relatively smooth path of pre-tournament tip Sinner to the final, has had a certain statistical neatness to it.

Match Odds Market looks right

In Sunday's final, Sinner faces Taylor Fritz 4.03/1, who has had a much harder route to the final, playing 13 sets in his last three matches, including five when dispatching Frances Tiafoe in the semifinal late on Friday night.

According to my Elo ratings, Sinner should be shorter - around 1.111/9, with Fritz at 10.519/2 - but the market is no doubt adjusting for Sinner's semifinal injury scare, which saw him with his wrist in ice, whilst Jack Draper, his opponent, was vomiting at the other end.

I won't be trading out of my pre-tournament position on Sinner, though. Doubts about his wrist are broadly accounted for by doubts around Fritz's fatigue, and Sinner remains the far superior player on hard courts.

With only two previous matches between the pair (currently tied at one win each) leaving us with limited data on which to base decisions, the side markets are best approached with caution and small stakes, but that doesn't mean there isn't some value lurking.

Number of sets

In their two matches so far - helpfully, both of which were on hard courts - the pair have used 83% of the sets available to them. This figure is relatively high compared to other pairings in the men's game. Coupled with the injury worries for Sinner, which might see him holding back, and Fritz demonstrating his abilities to take matches deep, this is likely to go longer than the bare ratings suggest.

At the time of writing, the market is still getting going, but backing Four Sets @ around 3.02/1 should be do-able and is the value call.

Set Betting

Given this, supporting Sinner to win 3-1 at around 3.211/5 looks best.

Prior to this season, I would have been nervous supporting Sinner in a Grand Slam final (and, indeed, was, fearing ahead of his Australian Open win in January that he had a lacklustre record in five-set matches). Statistics tell a story of Sinner's meteoric rise this year, though: prior to the 2024 season, he had a 77% win-rate in best-of-five matches; this season that figure stands at 92%.

Total Games

Using a percentage-of-available-games measure, the pair have used an average of 64% of their possible games. It's only based on two matches, of course, but the figure looks high for the men's game, and suggests an over/under midpoint of around 41 games.

That looks to be where the early market is settling, so unless there's a change of heart among the betting crowd as the match gets closer, it's a market I will be staying out of.

Now read more US Open tips and previews here.