US Open Tips: Back simulated 7/2 Jannik Sinner to dispatch Alcaraz and Djokovic

• US Open draw has skewed likely outcome

• Jannik Sinner 7/24.50 has been blessed

• Carlos Alcaraz 21/10 faces most difficult test

• Novak Djokovic 5/23.50 is next best

• Use Betfair's Safer Gambling during the US Open

The all-important draw

Prior to tipping Jannik Sinner to win this year's Australian Open at 15/28.50 I wrote about how punters tend to under-appreciate the importance of the draw in tennis tournaments, and how central a role they play in determining who wins trophies.

The problem is, you only get under the skin of the importance of draws when you have a way of rating players, and you combine these ratings with tournament simulations, and most normal people prefer watching real tennis, rather than simulations on a spreadsheet. Fools.

Monte Carlo or bust?

For several years I have kept my own Elo ratings for the men's game, and prior to every tournament use a Monte Carlo simulation to "play" an upcoming tournament a hundred thousand times. Having the results of these simulations, it is then easy to see what odds a player should be: an even-money shot will have won half of those simulated tournaments.

Over the years, you get used to the different patterns thrown up by different draws, so it was a shock to see what came out of the simulation of this year's US Open. Such a shock, in fact, that I ended up re-running it a few times, initially convinced that I must have bust something in the spreadsheet.

What was so weird?

Well, a couple of things. Weirdest of all, 110 players (out of 128) in the draw didn't win a single simulated tournament. I've never seen it this high.

Also weird, the simulation only found seven players having as much as a 1% chance of winning the tournament: something else I've never seen.

So, why the weirdness?

It seems to come down to two things.

First, at the top of the men's game we have three players - Jannik Sinner 7/24.50, Carlos Alcaraz 21/10, and Novak Djokovic 5/23.50 - who are closely matched, within a few Elo points of each other, but who are - crucially - also significantly ahead of their other rivals.

Second, a combination of their seeding and the luck-of-the-draw has meant that the trio have been placed in quarters where they face little challenge in terms of their opposition.

In his quarter, for example, Alcaraz's toughest opponent looks to be Hubert Hurkacz 100/1101.00. For Djokovic, it's Grigor Dimitrov 100/1101.00. It looks marginally more difficult for Sinner: he potentially faces Daniil Medvedev 16/117.00 in the quarterfinals.

Fourth-seed Alexander Zverev 6/17.00 should make it through his quarter, although the simulations give him little chance of progressing beyond the semifinals. With only a 73% win rate on hard courts this year, that's little surprise.

Who wins from the top three?

Here are the results of 100,000 simulated US Opens, showing the current Betfair odds and, in brackets, a rounded number of simulations the players "won", followed by the odds this translates to:

1. Jannik Sinner 7/24.50 (41,800; 7/52.40)
2. Novak Djokovic 5/23.50 (28,300; 5/23.50)
3. Carlos Alcaraz 21/10 (14,100; 6/17.00)
4. Alexander Zverev 6/17.00 (4,800; 20/121.00)
5. Danill Medvedev 16/117.00 (4,400; 22/123.00)

The projected fate of Carlos Alcaraz is perhaps surprising, but looking through the simulations, his quarter starts to look trickier than on first sight: they show him getting tripped up early by the likes of Jack Draper, Sebastian Korda, Alex De Minaur, and Hubert Hurkacz; four players who have been climbing up the Elo ratings of late.

Sinner's quarter, meanwhile, is not as difficult as it might have initially seemed. Yes, having a previous US Open winner in Medvedev looks worrying - and I can see why Gavin Mair fancies Medvedev's chances - but then Medvedev has shown little in the way of form since reaching the Australian Open final in January. Elsewhere in the quarter, there is little to be found: Tommy Paul, perhaps, or a return to former glories from Stan Wawrinka or Stefanos Tsitsipas.

The US Open is a real tournament, of course, and not a simulation. Which some people would argue was a good thing.

As much as I enjoy watching the simulations unfold on a computer screen, I would probably agree, but I'll agree more strongly should Jannik Sinner go on to win it for real.

Now read more US Open tips and previews here.