Australian Open

Australian Open Men's Final: Back Medvedev's experience @ 8/1 to win through in five setter

Daniil Medvedev at Australian Open
Daniil Medvedev can use his experience to take this to five sets

Playing with other people's money, writes Jack Houghton, it's safe to assume this will go long...

  • Jannik Sinner (1.412/5) is rightful favourite, but is not value

  • The side markets provide more opportunity

  • Expecting this to go long is the route to profit

A profitable tournament so far

Profitable punting is a long-term affair, eked out by months of good decision making that brings consistent, marginal profits. It's illogical, then, to feel so buoyed by early-season success, but there is something lovely about starting the tennis season with a bonanza of an Australian Open, and feeling that - unless things go terribly wrong - you'll be playing the rest of the year with what feels like other people's money.

Central to this buoyant feeling has been the performance of Jannik Sinner, my max-bet pre-tournament tip, who dispatched Novak Djokovic in the semi-finals and is 1.412/5 to win his first Major on Sunday in Melbourne.

Smaller bets on Daniil Medvedev and Andrey Rublev - identified as value in that preview - means profit in the tournament market is guaranteed, and individual match betting has been kind along the way too.

It's important, then, not to get carried away in this final, but likewise, where value betting opportunities exist, they should be taken.

Match betting

By my reckoning, Sinner should be around 1.51/2 to win this, to Medvedev's 3.02/1.

The exchange market sees Sinner as a marginally stronger favourite than this, but not significantly so, and there isn't enough of a discrepancy to recommend a bet. The side markets, though, present a different story.

Number of sets

To date, head-to-head, the pair have used 85% of the sets available to them. This figure is high compared to other pairings in the men's game.

Beneath these headline figures further evidence of how keenly contested this match is likely to be can be found. In 23 sets, the pair have played six tie breaks, and taking out their first two encounters - which the more experienced Medvedev dominated - all their matches have tended to go long. Playing best-of-five for the first time, don't expect this to be over quickly.

Backing Five Sets at 3.711/4 is the value call.

Back Five Sets @ 3.711/4

Bet now

Set Betting

Given this, supporting Medvedev to win 3-2 at around 9.417/2 looks like the value call.

Sinner has been the more dominant player throughout the tournament and is the rightful favourite; Medvedev, by comparison, has seemed laboured at times. But this is Sinner's first Major final, and he's only played five sets on 12 occasions in his career, losing seven of them. Sinner may well be able to dispatch Medvedev early, but the longer the match goes on, the more it will favour Medvedev's experience.

Back Medvedev to win 3-2 @ 9.417/2

Bet now

Total Games

Using a percentage-of-available-games measure, the pair use an average of 64% of the available games. Again, this is high for the men's game. That suggests an over/under midpoint of around 42 games.

Given the market is currently settling at 37.5 Games, and that Over is available at 1.910/11, this is worth a bet. It's safe to assume the first set will be closely contested - in their most recent encounters it has been - likely allowing an early trading opportunity for a guaranteed profit.

Back Over 37.5 Games @ 1.910/11

Bet now

Now read more Tennis previews and tips here.

Recommended bets


New customers only. Bet £10 on the Betfair Sportsbook at odds of min EVS (2.0) and receive £40 in FREE Bet Builders, Accumulators or Multiples to use on any sport. T&Cs apply.

Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.