US Open Men's Singles Day 4 Tips: Back Mmoh to beat ageing Isner

• Alcaraz among big names in action on day four

• Rublev facing tough Monfils test

• Mmoh the pick against aging Isner

Top players to ease through on Thursday

Winners from Tuesday feature on the Thursday schedule, including Carlos Alcaraz, who was a beneficiary of a retirement win over Dominik Koepfer during the second set.

Jannik Sinner also breezed into round two with little difficulty, as did Alexander Zverev and Daniil Medvedev, who dropped just two games in his demolition of Attila Balazs.

Tougher days will come for these high-ranked players, although round two probably won't hold much fear for them. They are all short-priced to continue their tournaments with a fairly routine win.

Market expects Monfils to challenge Rublev

One top 10 player who is a bigger price to win on Thursday is Andrey Rublev, who faces the veteran Frenchman Gael Monfils. When they last met two years ago, also on hard court, Rublev was around the 1.351/3 mark, so his price for their clash here of 1.608/13 is markedly higher.

This is probably due to several form factors - Rublev's run of three defeats in a row as a strong favourite prior to his round one win here over Arthur Cazaux, and Monfils turning back the clock recently with wins over Stefanos Tsitsipas and Alex De Minaur.

However, Monfils struggled against Taro Daniel in round one, needing to fight back from a set down to eventually win via a fourth set tiebreak, in a match lasting over three hours.

The level Monfils has shown over the last month or so, though, is solid but not incredible. He's running at a combined 104% service/return points won, which is certainly decent but probably still a little below the peak of his career.

Can he sustain that level, which is a little below where Rublev was in 2022 on hard court, in the short-medium term? That comparison does make today's line more viable, but if you think that in a best of five set match Monfils might struggle with fatigue, Rublev's price could be attractive.

Dimitrov may be tired before Murray meeting

Another veteran in action is Andy Murray, who faces Grigor Dimitrov, with Dimitrov the very slight favourite at 1.865/6. While Murray has dominated the Bulgarian in previous meetings, the last was almost seven years ago so any kind of career history is irrelevant for this match-up.

Data suggests that Dimitrov should be a little shorter-priced, with around a 1.5-2% edge on service and return points won on hard court this year. Throwing into the mix Murray's recent fitness issues too, I'm leaning towards opposing the Scotsman from a data perspective.

However, I think we've probably got this price because of Dimitrov's struggles in the last round when he took almost five hours to beat Alex Molcan, saving a break point at *4-5 in the deciding set, and a further two as he came back from 7-9 down to win 11-9 in the tiebreak.

Isner's return game an issue against Mmoh

Finally, on a day where a number of players in their mid-thirties compete, John Isner has a marginal market advantage at 1.9210/11 against fellow American Michael Mmoh.

The 38-year-old will be retiring soon, and while he's still serving well (holding 90% on hard court this year), his return game is declining, winning a mere 25% of return points on the surface in 2023.

This has been a major issue for Isner this year, contributing to his poor overall record in 2023, and breaking opposition in just 4% of return games illustrates that the big-server will need to probably win tiebreaks if he is to continue his tournament.

I'm prepared to take the chance that he won't, and Mmoh's solid return game should cause more problems for Isner than Isner's return game will for Mmoh, who looks a decent underdog price.

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