US Open Men's Semi Final Previews and Tip: Back Sinner to pass Draper test at 11/10

• Draper has laid down a marker

• Back Sinner at 11/10 to make the final

• Can Tiafoe shock Fritz?

What an incredible couple of weeks Jack Draper has had.

The Londonder has announced himself as a Grand Slam challenger with a run to the US Open semi-final for the loss of no sets.There is no other player in the tournament that can claim a perfect record.

However, the Brit will be up against it when playing world number one and outright favourite Jannik Sinner in tonight's semi-final.

I think Draper will be competitive, but it is unlikely that he will be able to go toe to toe with Sinner set after set.

The winner of that match knows that they will face an American opponent in Sunday's final as either Taylor Fritz or Frances Tiafoe lie in wait. That is the headline match on Arthur Ashe stadium between two guys with vastly different game styles. Fritz is the favourite, but can Tiafoe's creative genius spoil the party?

The case against Draper

Jack Draper has laid down a marker at this tournament for what he is capable of achieving in his career. The Brit will now be viewed as somebody who can compete for major titles.

He has cruised through the draw to make the final, although we should take take that ease of passage with a pinch of salt.

Draper has avoided a top level player until Alex De Minaur in the quarter-final, dodging the likes of his forecasted third round opponent Carlos Alcaraz whose war weariness caused an early exit at the hands of the journeyman Botic van de Zandschulp.

Even his win over De Minaur - as impressive as it was in such a big match - has a caveat. The Australian was playing his first tournament since a significant hip injury picked up at Wimbledon, and he looked in pain several times in his battle with Draper, and unable to endure the long points that he depends upon to grind down opponents.

Draper himself is an injury concern having required on-court treatment for a right thigh issue in the second set of his match with De Minaur. Although he was able to play through it, he was barely pushed by an even more physically hampered Alex De Minaur.

The Brit says he is fine and he is not too worried about his condition. However, an injury is never too far away from Draper and as much as you want to take his comments at face value there is a worry that his body will struggle with an intense work load deep into the second week of a major.

And then there's Sinner.

Sinner in top form

As good as Draper has been to this point, is it enough to topple world number one Sinner? The Italian entered this tournament under a cloud, caused by triggering a positive result on a doping test.

In the opening set of his first round contest with MacKenzie McDonald he was clearly rattled, a shadow of the player that has been the best men's player on a hard court this season. Since then though it has been business as usual for Sinner who himself has coasted through the draw.

His victory over Daniil Medvedev cemented his favouritism for what would be a first US Open title, and the convincing manner he dispatched the player who for my money is the second best hard court player in the world is a worrying sign for British hopes.

Sinner was too solid and hit too big consistently for the usually secure Medvedev who admitted post match that he just couldn't find the level of steadiness he needed over the distance to defeat the Italian. Medvedev knew what he needed to do, but doing it is easier said than done.

This will be Draper's first Grand Slam semi-final and that should have some effect on his psyche. It is the biggest match of his career, while Sinner is playing finals and decisive matches every week. This is the next step for Draper - to become familiar and experienced with the big occasion.

Draper said of his form, "I felt like my level today [against De Minaur] was solid, there were some glimpse of really good stuff. I still have some levels to go if I get pushed."

Sinner is respectful of Draper and expects a challenge. He said, "Draper serves very well, hits the forehand and backhand very solidly. He is a very good player overall, he does a lot of serve and volley. It will be a tough match for both, especially mentally."

If he performs at his best and can hurdle the nervous moments then I can see Draper pushing Sinner for spells in this match. And Draper should have plenty in the tank to keep Sinner honest.

Yet, when you look at the details the Italian has the edge in every department - experience, from, proven mentality.

Whatever happens this match marks a significant step forward in Draper's career and even though I believe Sinner will win this, the Brit will be richer for the experience the next time - and there will be a next time - he finds himself deep in a Slam.

For now though it is very difficult to see him beating Sinner and I think the Italian is a reasonable price to win this one in straight sets. Back Jannik Sinner to win 3/0 at 11/102.11.

Fritz's consistency vs Tiafoe's flair

Tonight's prime-time match between Taylor Fritz and Frances Tiafoe could be an epic.

Fritz dominates the head to head by six wins to one, with Tiafoe's only victory coming in their very first meeting when the duo were awarded wild cards as young up and coming players at Indian Wells back in 2016.

It is easy to understand why Fritz has such control over Tiafoe. Fritz plays the style favoured by the top tier men's players combining big serving with steady power off the ground. If you study the top 20 in the rankings that is the favourite recipe of most of these guys with a few notable exceptions such as the hyper creative Carlos Alcaraz or the similarly playful, if not quite as effective Tiafoe.

Fritz is steady and consistent, will Tiafoe has an artist's mentality playing off emotion and vibe.

In what will be the biggest match of each player's career it is not impossible to imagine the crowd and situation favouring Tiafoe, who will play to entertain and wobble the confidence Fritz has in his Plan A game.

It was a hugely impressive victory by Fritz when he dispatched Alexander Zverev in the quarter-final. He was the steadier and bigger hitting player with Zverev a little bit too passive in that match. However, there is no chance that Tiafoe will play that way. You won't know what shot will come next.

If you examined the data and stats most signs point to a Fritz victory. That said there is also plenty of evidence that Fritz does not have the stomach for big matches. He has a catalogue of underwhelming performances when it really matters.

Tiafoe said of Fritz, "It will be different on Arthur Ashe. I have to learn and I believe that a couple of those matches I should have won. He's a very tough player, plays very well from both sides, has a great serve, and now moves much better. It will be difficult and a very important match for both, playing for a final. None of those matches come close to what this one will be."

If it is business as usual then Fritz will win, but Tiafoe has shock value. For those able to stay awake for a match that starts after midnight in the UK it should be a fun one to trade and it wouldn't surprise me if you are glued to your screen several hours later.

Check out more betting previews on betting.betfair.com