US Open Men's Final Preview and Tip: Back Sinner to edge past Fritz at 11/10

• Sinner the player to beat

• Fritz says he will win

• 11/102.11 for Sinner to win a competitive final

Jannik Sinner has been by far and away the best male player on a hard court in the 2024 season.

The Italian has elevated his game over the past 12 months and looks primed to capture a second Grand Slam title in New York, adding to the Australian Open crown he won at the start of the campaign.

He will need to defeat a resilient Taylor Fritz to cement his status at the top of the sport, but he is heavily to do so starting this match at 2/91.22.

Sinner the man to beat

Sinner has won the most important hard court tournaments this season triumphing in Melbourne, Miami and Cincinnati while Fritz only has the lower tier 250 title of Delray Beach to show for his efforts on the harder track this year.

It has been rare that Jannik Sinner has appeared beatable on a hard court this year. The best hard court players meld together a combination of strong serving and disciplined, controlled hitting from the baseline to outfox the opposing player.

There is nobody on the planet who does that better than Sinner. Even Taylor Fritz enjoys this rhythmic game style, but it is difficult to see what unique element he has in his possession to upset the Italian.

Arguably Sinner has more to his game than Fritz, as he is an accomplished net player and does have underutilised variety options to call upon to change up the rallies. After defeating Jack Draper in the semi-final Sinner said that he was going to work on sharpening his net game before the final.

Sinner unclutch and unfit?

I was not wholly impressed by Sinner's performance against Draper. He was incredibly unclutch, making hard work of a physically ailing Draper and wasting umpteen chances to take full control of the contest in set two.

That is the glimmer of hope for Taylor Fritz in this match. If he can hang with Sinner for long enough there are clear dips in the Italian's level that can appear and Fritz has to take them. The American has been generating plenty of break point chances this tournament, but he's not been able to take enough of them.

Against Draper, Sinner found himself under some unnecessary pressure having squandered break point chances and requiring to gut out a tough service hold midway through the set before the jeopardy of a tiebreak.

Also, there was a worrying moment in the match when Sinner fell when retrieving a ball and landed heavily on his left wrist. The physio was called on court to assess the injury and he was shaking out his arm for the remainder of the match. He was spotted during his warm-down with a bag of ice dressed on his wrist.

It might not be a huge concern given that he was still able to finish the match without any complication but it is another negative mark in the Sinner column when assessing this match.

Fritz projecting confidence

After a resilient victory over Frances Tiafoe, toughed out over five sets in which he was able to wear down the flamboyant game of his compatriot, Fritz stated, "My feeling is I am going to win this final against Sinner."

The confident talk might keep him competitive but I don't believe Fritz's high expectations will realistically be met.

They have been well matched in their previous meetings, splitting the head to head at one win apiece. With similar gamestyles it is possible for Fritz to go toe to toe with Sinner. Yet, the standard set by the Italian is one that Fritz has not demonstrated that he can hang with.

Fritz has played very well this tournament, quite possibly the most consistent and strongest level of his career so far and I think that sets him up to be competitive here, even if most signs point to his eventual defeat.

The American is playing in a first major final and will surely enjoy the crowd support of Arthur Ashe stadium. That is another factor that will likely play in his favour.

Fritz is capable of hanging with Sinner but might not have the extra gears or the real belief that he can get this done despite his confident projection. There is plenty of evidence in his career of struggling to get over the winning line in big occasions.

Sinner is a deserving favourite and a likely US Open champion but the question marks over his level and fitness, and the form of his opponent mean this won't be easy work for the Italian.

My pick is for Jannik Sinner to win and both players to win a set at 11/102.11

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