Find Me a 5/1 US Open Winner: Kyrgios too short against Khachanov

We've arrived at the business end of the 2022 US Open and after Nick Kyrgios' win over (soon to be) former world number one Daniil Medvedev and Rafael Nadal's defeat to Frances Tiafoe, the men's singles title is up for grabs.

Kyrgios' win over Medvedev and Nadal's loss has seen the Aussie move to favouritism in the outright market at around the 2.942/1 mark, but will his body stand up for another three, potentially long, best-of-five set matches?

That's the big question for me and his next match against Karen Khachanov on Tuesday could be closer than the odds suggest.

The last time that this pair met was in Kyrgios' backyard at the 2020 Australian Open when it went all the way to a final set tie break in a match that involved four tie break sets.

Their meeting before that on hard courts also went to a decider that involved two tie breaks, but this time Khachanov won at the 2019 Cincy Masters and if we look at the stats of this career series there isn't much in it.

Indeed, it's Khachanov that's ahead on the combined service points won/return points won totals by 102 to 98 and it's dead level in hold/break totals, with both men holding serve 92% of the time.

Moving on to the stats from this US Open so far, it's Khachanov that leads as far as combined service points won/return points won is concerned (111 compared to 108) and in service hold/break totals (116 versus 114).

Kyrgios fans will, no doubt, point to the 'new Kyrgios' that we've seen in the last few months and assume that his recent good form will continue, but a price of around 1.21/5 is way too short for me in a match-up that has been very closely contested in the past.

The other issue that may be at play here is the mental side of things, with the role of underdog having been removed from Kyrgios - he's now expected to win and expected to at least reach the final.

He's never been in that position at a major before and I wonder how he'll handle the weight of expectation?

There's also the stamina issue that's always lurking somewhere in the background with Kyrgios and we saw once again in Montreal and Cincy that he has a limit to what he can do physically.

Khachanov played a five setter on Sunday night, but it was only half an hour longer than Kyrgios v Medvedev and Khachanov had a short match in the last-16 when Jack Draper retired.

Another factor here is the weather, with rain highly likely all afternoon/evening in New York on Tuesday, but Khachanov is a former champion at M1000 level indoors, so I can't imagine that will be too much of a hindrance to the Russian.

I like the handicaps on Khachanov here and +3.5 games at 2.6313/8 combined with the bet in the first of Tuesday's quarter finals will take us past the magical 6.05/1 mark today, but Khachanov +1.5 sets or +4.5 games are also good options.

In the other quarter final, my outright Matteo Berrettini has battled his way through to the last eight and he now faces Casper Ruud, who Berrettini defeated here at the US Open in 2020 as a 1.192/11 chance.

Things are very different now, with Berrettini slight underdog at 2.0621/20 to beat Ruud, whose hard court stats are much better in 2022 than they were two years ago, hence the price.

Back then, Ruud had barely won a match on outdoor hard at main level and now he's 21-6 win/loss on this surface for the last 12 months.

The bare stats suggest that Ruud has been the better performer in the last year on outdoor hard, with a combined service points won/return points won total of 106, but I still see him as vulnerable against someone with Berrettini's power.

We haven't seen the best of Berrettini yet this summer on hard courts, but if he finds his best form the conditions here in New York should be in his favour and probably more so if this is played under a closed roof.

That will allow him to go for his shots a bit more and with this one likely to be close, the 2.77/4 about Berrettini winning and both players winning a set looks good here, and that will make a 7.09 double for Tuesday.