US Open Daily Double: Can Fognini roll back the years against Nadal?

Sean Calvert
01 September 2022

Fognini will relish another chance to take on Nadal in New York

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Round two of the men's singles at the 2022 US Open completes on Thursday and after a winning double on Wednesday, Sean Calvert is back with two more plays for day four...

"This match on this court against this opponent will have Fognini's pulse racing again."

We managed to find a handy 3.24 winner on Wednesday when Marton Fucsovics won the two sets he needed against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Alexander Bublik won the required amount of games versus Pablo Carreno Busta.

The bottom half of the men's singles draw are in action on day four, with Rafael Nadal and Carlos Alcaraz among the names scheduled for Thursday in New York.

The weather is set to be very similar to yesterday, with plenty of sunshine around and highs of around 29C in the shade.

And that should suit a qualifier to cause significant problems to a seeded player that had to go the full five sets in round one.

That man is Dutch left-hander Gijs Brouwer, who may be on a hot streak here, having already beaten a fatigued opponent in the opening round.

That was Adrian Mannarino, who played six matches last week in Winston-Salem on his way to the title and it's fair to assume that Manna was a touch fatigued against Brouwer on Tuesday, but the Dutchman was still impressive.

Musetti is just 4-10 win/loss on outdoor hard at main level this past 12 months

And in these quick conditions his lefty style, decent serve and ability to come to the net could add up to trouble for Lorenzo Musetti, who often struggles when rushed for time, particularly on the backhand side.

Indeed, Musetti is just 4-10 win/loss on outdoor hard at main level this past 12 months, breaking serve only 13% of the time, and recording a hold/break total of just 91.

His combined service points won/return points won total is only 95 and he was fortunate to get past David Goffin in round one here, with Goffin winning 14 more points in total and having served for the match three times (also blowing a 7-4 lead in the final set breaker).

That four-and-a-half hour struggle will surely have taken a lot from Musetti's legs and Brouwer could take advantage here.

I like the +4.5 games about Brouwer here at 2.01/1 for the first leg of today's double.

For the second leg, it's a choice between taking a chance on Alexei Popyrin to win the first set against Diego Schwartzman or backing Fabio Fognini to win a set in the night match versus old rival Rafa Nadal.

Rafael Nadal Melbourne.jpg

And I can't resist backing Fognini in a match that he'll surely be massively up for against the man that the Italian beat from two sets down in a memorable clash here as a 6.1 chance back in 2016.

I'm not expecting that sort of a result from Fognini here, but given Nadal's rustiness I'm sure that Fogna will fancy his chances of at least making this a close one.

We haven't seen the best of Fognini for some time now and he doesn't seem able to keep his best level up for long enough to be a threat at big tournaments at the age of 35 and in the latter stages of his career.

And he's certainly been guilty of cruising through the last year or two without exerting himself too much, but this match on this court against this opponent will have his pulse racing again.

Even money about Fognini doing what world number 198 Rinky Hijikata did in round one seems decent, with Nadal having played just the two matches since Wimbledon and still some way off his best level.

Having gone five sets in round one against Aslan Karatsev in some ways isn't ideal for the aging body of the Italian, but it will at least have him match sharp for this one.

Nadal has the advantage of having played his round one match at night on Ashe, and he should have enough to win, but he'll do well to win it in three against an opponent who'll be giving it everything (even if sometimes he'll look like he isn't).

Fognini to win a set and Brouwer +4.5 games makes a 4.0 double for Thursday.