The second round of the men's singles at the US Open 2022 begins on Wednesday, with the top half of the draw in action on day three.
Round two at the US Open has produced an average of 24% underdog winners in the last 10 editions, but 30% in the last three editions, the latter figure being a healthy return for a major.
If you'd backed every underdog in round two in the last five editions for a £10 stake you'd be out of pocket by around £132.
In terms of tie break matches, round two produced a big 63% of them in 2021 and the average over the last three editions in this round works out at 55% (the 10-year average is 47%).
The weather is expected to be hot again on Wednesday at around 31C in the shade, but not quite as humid, so conditions should be on the quicker side.
Serves set to dominate when PCB and Bublik clash
And with that in mind I think it's worth taking a chance on Alexander Bublik's big game to cause problems for Pablo Carreno Busta.
PCB's title in Montreal came in slower conditions on a Decoturf surface and last year here at the US Open on a Laykold he was beaten in round one by the big-serving, net-rushing Maxime Cressy.
And that's exactly what Bublik will be trying to do against Carreno Busta - serve big, get to the net and deprive PCB of the rhythm he loves to get when playing a fellow baseliner.
Bublik knows he'll have to keep the points short to win this match and he's proven to be an awkward opponent for PCB in the past.
The Spaniard has won all three clashes, but two came by way of a final set tie break and the other one was a bizarre retirement from Bublik at one set all and 4-3 in the decider on slow clay in Monte-Carlo earlier this season.
The stats of their three meetings show that both men have held serve 88% of the time in this match-up
That match was an odd one, with both men looking like they were tanking it at times and in the end Bublik broke himself and walked off.
The stats of their three meetings show that both men have held serve 88% of the time in this match-up and while PCB has won many more points on second serve (68% to 46%) I like the idea of backing Bublik to make this close.
Four of the eight sets they've played against each other (including on clay) have gone to breakers and with conditions here this week on the quicker side (and Bublik having had a short break as he became a father recently, so he should be in good spirits) I like Bublik's chances of winning over 17.5 games at 1.84/5 for leg one of the double.
Fucsovics a touch of value against Davidovich Fokina
If there's one player that deserves a bit of luck to go his way then that man is Marton Fucsovics, who was playing well early on in the grass season, then got injured, and saw his quarter final points from Wimbledon 2021 wiped off and now he's ranked 98th in the world.
Fucsovics may have received a little bit of that elusive good fortune in round one here when he benefited from a retirement by Maxime Cressy, but the Hungarian was getting on top prior to that, which shows that he's starting to play well again.
He's a player that to me, a bit like Cristian Garin, tends to show his best level at majors and now that he seems to be fit again I like his price against the talented but inconsistent Alejandro Davidovich Fokina.
Indeed, the last and only time that this pair met was on indoor hard in Rotterdam in February 2021 and Fucsovics won in straight sets as a 1.845/6 favourite.
Now he's a 2.757/4 chance against the same opponent in quicker conditions than in Rotterdam and I think we're potentially getting a bit of value here.
I suspect that this one could be a real rollercoaster, so the safer play is the +1.5 sets on Fucsovics at 1.804/5 for the second leg of the double that would pay 3.24.
Other prices/favourites today that could be worth attacking in some way include: Brandon Holt, Alex De Minaur, Daniel Elahi Galan, Botic van de Zandschulp and Nick Kyrgios.