It was a day of highs and lows for me at the US Open on Tuesday when our handicap bet on Karen Khachanov won, but I lost Matteo Berrettini after a poor day from the Italian on serve when he needed it to be firing.
The tournament favourite is now Carlos Alcaraz, who on Monday will become the fifth-youngest player ever to enter the top-three in the world rankings and he might yet become the first 19-year-old to be world number one.
Nervy affair likely when Tiafoe and Rublev clash
On to Wednesday, then, and Frances Tiafoe has been in great form so far this fortnight in New York, but he looks a bit short in price against Andrey Rublev.
Tiafoe took Rublev down at the US Open a year ago in five sets, but he was priced up at around the 3.46123/50 mark to win that match and now, 12 months later, we're being asked to bet him at around 2.01/1.
Much of that price is to do with Tiafoe having beaten Rafael Nadal in the previous round, but it was hardly a good level that Rafa brought to the court that day and indeed this whole tournament.
Prior to that, Tiafoe got lucky when Diego Schwartzman somehow managed to squander a 5-2 double break lead and a 6-3 tie break lead to lose the opening set of that match and that was the key moment in that one.
Nadal said of his performance against Tiafoe: "I played a bad match and he played a good match. At the end that's it. I was not able to hold a high level of tennis for a long time. I was not enough quick on my movements."
So, for me, there are holes to be picked in Tiafoe's run to the last eight and I suspect he'll now start to feel the pressure in only his second major quarter final.
Having beaten Rublev here a year ago the crowd will expect him to do it again and he certainly won't have that underdog role that he often thrives in.
Rublev might be a bit of value here, as he proved to be against Cam Norrie the previous round, but I don't trust him at all mentally...
On the stats of this US Open so far, the pair are almost level, with Tiafoe one percent better on return points won, so I can see why this match is priced at 50/50, but I can't back Tiafoe at this price.
Rublev has sneaked through to this stage - his sixth major quarter final - without much fanfare, but he'll be delighted at his straight sets win over Cam Norrie as underdog in round four.
It was an odd performance from Norrie in truth and Rublev, once again has found second serve points hard to come by, winning only 48% of those points this US Open so far.
That's long been one of his flaws and if we're looking at that stat alone, Tiafoe has won 55% of his second serve points this US Open, so that suggests he's been the better from the back of the court.
But if we take the two-match career series (they also played at US Open Juniors in 2014 when Rublev was top seed and Tiafoe won) it's very much in favour of Rublev, whose combined service points won/return points won total is 106 compared to just 93 for Tiafoe.
Rublev was priced up as short as 1.261/4 to beat Tiafoe at Indian Wells earlier this year and now we're getting 1.9210/11, so Rublev might be a bit of value here, as he proved to be against Cam Norrie the previous round, but I don't trust him at all mentally in what will surely be a tense affair.
Alcaraz may win physcial battle against Sinner
As popular as Tiafoe will be with this New York crowd, the match of the day for most will be Jannik Sinner versus Carlos Alcaraz, with the latter having a maiden major and the world number one ranking in his sights.
But he's had his fair share of problems against Sinner so far in their main level clashes, with Sinner winning two of them and holding serve a huge 96% of the time against Alcaraz in three meetings on clay, grass and indoor hard.
Sinner leads the combined service points won/return points won totals by 104 to 96 in those three matches and he beat Alcaraz with something to spare, both at Wimbledon and on the clay of Umag this summer.
However, I'm worried about Sinner's stamina holding up if this goes long and I'm concerned about the frequent peaks and troughs in his game that, for me, makes him a hard player to call.
If we look at the stats of each player this US Open so far, it's Sinner leading the way in terms of combined service points won/return points won on a healthy 113 (67% serve/46% return) with Alcaraz on 108 (63% serve/45% return).
So, both men have broken serve a lot this tournament: Sinner 38% of the time and Alcaraz 39% of the time and I'm expecting a swingy match here.
It's hard to ignore the advantage that Sinner has in the head-to-head stats and in the data for this US Open so far, but in a night match on Ashe I favour Alcaraz in terms of big match temperament and physicality.
So, for today's big-priced pick it's the 6.411/2 about Alcaraz winning the match 3-2.