US Open Men's Singles Post Draw Tips: Schwartzman with long shot potential

Draw further plays into Djokovic's hands

If there wasn't already plenty in Novak Djokovic's favour in advance of the US Open, the draw has given him a further boost in his quest for a 18th Grand Slam title. Djokovic's win in the Western & Southern Open last week completed his second Career Golden Masters - all nine Masters 1000 level events - and he's the only player to have ever achieved this once, let alone twice.

The world number one opens against Damir Dzumhur today and isn't scheduled to face a particularly high level opponent until round four, where he could potentially meet Pablo Carreno-Busta or John Isner. My view is that he has a gift draw, with only Denis Shapovalov and David Goffin looking realistic threats - and he'd be an overwhelming favourite over any of these players. I'm actually surprised he hasn't really shortened from the pre-draw 1.834/5.

Tsitsipas potentially over-rated by the outright market

While it's difficult to look at quarter two from an outright perspective, given that anyone coming through this bracket is extremely likely to have to face Djokovic in the semi-finals, there might be some scope to look at it from a quarter winner point of view.

Stefanos Tsitsipas is the favourite to win the quarter, priced at 2.111/10 on the Exchange currently but I'm sceptical of his chances in Grand Slams. He has a lot to prove to me with regards to his return game, and historical data suggests that this is quite a big hurdle to overcome in a Grand Slam, with serve-orientated players frequently accumulating more fatigue due to tighter sets and longer matches in general.

Schwartzman one to watch as an outside chance

Tsitsipas' main competition in Q2 comes from Alexander Zverev, who is around 4.57/2 to win the bracket, and also Diego Schwartzman, who looks generously priced at 12/1 with the Sportsbook. The Argentine has excellent return data, and this helps him to actually rate higher than Tsitsipas from a combined service/return points won percentage on hard court in the last 12 months. Sure, Tsitsipas may have faced a higher calibre of opposition, but there shouldn't be such a discrepancy in these prices.

Schwartzman opens up against Cameron Norrie - not the easiest opener he could have had - but subsequently, should he beat the Brit, be a very strong favourite against either Jason Jung or Federico Coria in round two. The improving Hubert Hurkacz is a possible round three obstacle, as would potentially Zverev be in round four, but Zverev has a tricky opening himself with Kevin Anderson his round one opponent, and will possibly need to get past the high potential Brandon Nakashima and Adrian Mannarino en route to that stage.

Medvedev around even money to win Q3

In quarter three, Daniil Medvedev is seeded to progress to the semi-finals, and the Russian is now into second outright favourite at 8.615/2 following the market reaction to Tsitsipas being drawn in Djokovic's half of the draw. I rate Medvedev very highly as the second best hard courter in the draw, but I'm not sure the conditions in New York are hugely to his liking.

This bracket also contains Matteo Berrettini, Andrey Rublev and Grigor Dimitrov among others, and this quartet top the market for quarter winner in this bracket - Medvedev is priced around 2.01/1 on the Exchange to win the quarter.

Thiem with something to prove in quarter four

Finally, quarter four is fascinating, given that it contains Dominic Thiem as the player who the seedings imply should progress. He was thrashed last week by Filip Krajinovic, and will need dramatic improvement from last week if he is to make an impression here in New York over the next fortnight.

Thiem is 3.02/1 to win the quarter, but second favourite Milos Raonic looks interesting at 5.49/2, given that his hard court data is actually better, and comes into the event in good form, having lost to Djokovic in the final of last week's Masters 1000 tournament. With Raonic, there's always the worry that he will pick up an injury, and he's certainly not averse to a mid-tournament withdrawal, and this is the trade-off that bettors must face if they are considering backing him to win the quarter. The price looks nice, but it does come with that extra risk.

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