US Open Men's Singles Day Nine Tips: Carreno Busta not far from value against Shapovalov

Spanish Tennis Player Pablo Carreno-Busta
Pablo Carreno-Busta has played five less sets than Denis Shapovalov...
Join today
3 min read

We are now at the quarter-finals stage in the men's singles at the US Open, and returning to discuss the two matches tonight is our tennis columnist, Dan Weston...

"Carreno-Busta has played five less sets than Shapovalov to get to this stage, which could well play into his favour."

Medvedev win sees him shorten in the outright market

Andrey Rublev yielded us an underdog win on day eight, coming back from a set down to defeat Matteo Berrettini in four sets, while the other three men's singles fourth round matches went the way of favourites in straight sets, with Alex De Minaur, Dominic Thiem and Daniil Medvedev progressing with minimal fuss.

Following this, Medvedev is now the [2.84] outright favourite for his first ever Grand Slam title, with Thiem at [3.30] and Alexander Zverev a little further back at [6.20].

Zverev justified favourite to defeat Coric

Borna Coric surprised me with the ease of his win over Jordan Thompson on Sunday night given his accumulated fatigue, but he faces much tougher opposition tonight as he faces Alexander Zverev for a place in the semi-finals.

It's Zverev who is the favourite here at [1.45], and this isn't a million miles from value. If he was around [1.50] or above, it might be a little more tempting given his edge on both service and return numbers.

The duo have met on four previous occasions, with Coric actually triumphing on three of those, although one of these was unrepresentative of the current ability differential between the two players. Interestingly, the players have very similar service/return points won data in these matches, with Zverev having very poor break point conversion figures. Overall, this would suggest that Coric has been fortunate to get over the line in three of the four matches. Coric has also won 3/3 tiebreaks in their matches so far as well.

Carreno-Busta not far from value against Shapovalov

Pablo Carreno-Busta also isn't that far from value at [2.68] for his match with Denis Shapovalov. I'd prefer closer to [3.00] on the Spaniard, who benefited from Novak Djokovic's default on Sunday, and had less time on court as a result.

Carreno-Busta has played five less sets than Shapovalov to get to this stage, which could well play into his favour. He has also won three of their four previous meetings, with three last year illustrating there's a little more relevance to their head-to-head than Coric versus Zverev.

If Carreno-Busta drifts towards a higher price in the run-up to the match, he could well represent some value, but at this point in time, I'd prefer a little bit of a bigger price on him to make the semi-finals.

Dan Weston,

Discover the latest articles

Read past articles