ATP US Open Day 8: Ivashka can keep it close against Sinner

Kyrgios turns outright market upside down

I mentioned yesterday in the preview of the big match that a Kyrgios victory would see him rise to the top of the outright market for the title, and that indeed proved to be the case - the Australian is now into 3.4549/20 to lift the trophy, with Rafa Nadal further back at 4.03/1 and Carlos Alcaraz 5.14/1 as the market leaders.

Kyrgios will face Karen Khachanov in the quarter-finals.

Norrie justified favourite over Rublev

Three of the four matches on Monday feature strong market favourites - it's only the clash between the Brit Cameron Norrie and Andrey Rublev which the market anticipates to be particularly competitive.

Norrie has rather eased into this stage, winning all matches in straight sets so far, and comes into the event in good form, with a semi-final in Cincinnati and Wimbledon, and a final in Los Cabos in his last five tournaments. This has been the most consistent period of Norrie's professional career.

That's not the case for Rublev, who has recently dropped out of the top 10 and has required five sets in two of his three matches so far, which averaged about four hours on court for each of them. Over the last couple of years, Rublev had top five numbers, but has dropped off slightly in 2022.

This year on hard court, Norrie has the edge - winning around 3.5% more return points, with Rublev having a 1.5% advantage on serve, and given the discussion around accumulated fatigue, it's logical to think Norrie should be favourite. The market agrees, pricing up the Brit at 1.738/11.

Nadal heavy favourite over Tiafoe

We've tried to oppose Frances Tiafoe several times over the last week, with the American winning both matches as a solid favourite in straight sets but not particularly dominating. Now Tiafoe faces a big step up in opposition quality as he meets Rafa Nadal tonight.

Nadal is 1.211/5 to get the win, which looks fine on data - he has a sizeable edge on serve and return on hard court this year - but he's not looked particularly convincing in the tournament so far, dropping several sets en route to this stage. Nadal should take this, but I wouldn't be shocked if it was closer than the market anticipates.

Alcaraz return game the key against Cilic

Third favourite for the title Alcaraz is similarly priced as his countryman Nadal for his match with Marin Cilic, currently trading at 1.232/9 to get the job done. The duo met several weeks ago in Cincinnati, and Alcaraz was tested in the first set but ended up easing to a 7-6 6-1 win over the man 14 years his senior, at a slightly bigger 1.3030/100 market price.

The five set format here gives favourites a bigger edge, so I've no problem with a slightly shorter price than that Cincinnati meeting. The match hinges on the serve of Cilic versus return of Alcaraz. The Spanish teenager has won a phenomenal 43% of points on return on hard court this year, and Cilic will have to serve superbly in order to negate the threat which Alcaraz poses on return. If he does that, he might just create enough high variance moments to cause a shock.

Ivashka can compete with Sinner

Finally, Ilya Ivashka should rise in the rankings into the top 50 regardless of his result against Jannik Sinner, and I think that he has a chance here, despite being priced up at 4.407/2 by the market.

Sinner hasn't impressed hugely so far to get to this stage, being a heavy favourite in all three matches so far and not dominating in any of the them. While he does have an edge on stats on hard court this year, both on serve and return, it's not absurdly huge or big enough to justify the market line.

As the side markets form on the Exchange in advance of the match, we should be able to get around 1.9010/11 on Ivashka +5.5 games, which looks a decent spot to me.