ATP US Open Day 3 Tips: Murray favourite to set up Berrettini clash

Eubanks and others pick up winners on day two

Generally, favourites got the job done on Tuesday in the remaining round one matches at the US Open, although to various extents, Andrey Rublev, Jannik Sinner and Rafa Nadal ended up being pressured more than anticipated by lowly opposition.

With Chris Eubanks knocking out Pedro Martinez in straight sets - no need for it to be decided on points - we got our second consecutive winner of the men's tournament so far (read the tip here).

Our quest for a hat-trick isn't that easy. There's a ton of heavy favourites on the card, including top seed Daniil Medvedev, as well as Nick Kyrgios, Alex De Minaur, Matteo Berrettini, Andy Murray and Casper Ruud.

Murray's clash with the American wild card Emilio Navo intrigues, more so for the potential for the Scotsman to then face the big-serving Italian, Berrettini, in round three.

Draper undervalued for Auger-Aliassime clash

Murray's fellow Brit, Jack Draper, faces an intriguing meeting with the sixth seed, Felix Auger Aliassime.

Despite being on a clear upward curve, Draper is priced up at 3.259/4 to get past the Canadian tonight, which looks a little bit surprising as it's a similar line to his clash with Stefanos Tsitsipas several weeks ago in Montreal - who I rate higher than Auger-Aliassime.

Draper's level is also positively franked by an excellent straight-set round one win over Emil Ruusuvuori, and he's running at 104% combined service/return points won percentage on hard court this year.

Due to some pretty mediocre return data, Auger-Aliassime's figures are actually a little worse - one of the reasons why he's won so many matches is that he's 10-3 on the surface in tiebreaks, which is a record likely unsustainable.

Considering the above, Draper as a heavy underdog looks a viable pick, with my pricing struggling to find a clear favourite for this clash.

Two talented Americans also line up, with the market finding it tricky to separate the duo - Sebastian Korda is 1.9720/21 against Tommy Paul.

The duo met last year in San Diego with Korda winning in three sets but from a lower market price at around 1.558/15.

However, the two players look pretty evenly matched on hard court, looking at 2022 data - showing how much Paul has improved since their last meeting.

Moutet potentially undervalued

Finally, Botic Van de Zandschulp was pushed to five sets in his opener against Tomas Machac - not ideal considering he got to the final four in Winston Salem last week.

That win over Machac lasted over four hours, giving Moutet quite a significant fatigue advantage for this.

On hard court this year, Moutet has a small data edge on both serve and return, and I'm pretty surprised to see his line as big as 2.9015/8.