Medvedev among day one winners as big names fall
Big names were dumped out of the tournament on day one, with Stefanos Tsitsipas, Roberto Bautista-Agut and Taylor Fritz all exiting as strong pre-match favourites to opposition ranked outside the top 80.
There were wins, meanwhile, for top seed Daniil Medvedev and the British duo of Andy Murray and Jack Draper.
Fellow Brit, Cameron Norrie, is among the abundance of heavy pre-match favourites on Tuesday, with most of the card being theoretical mismatches. The likes of Rafa Nadal, Andrey Rublev, John Isner, Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner and Hubert Hurkacz are expected to progress today with minimal fuss, in order to set up some high-quality match-ups further down the line.
Goffin and Musetti with much to prove on hard courts
There are only a few matches where the market considers the match-up to be pretty competitive. For example, both David Goffin and Lorenzo Musetti have had miserable hard court records this year, so it's not that surprising to see Goffin a slight 1.814/5 favourite to progress. He has the higher long-term pedigree, but also seemingly in decline these days, whereas the considerably younger Musetti should at least improve for some time to come.
Eubanks' serve should give him puncher's chance
Pedro Martinez hasn't got much liking for hard courts, rarely playing on them unless he has to, and his stats on the surface are certainly nothing to write home about. The Spaniard, ranked just outside the top 50, has a big ranking edge over his opponent tonight, Chris Eubanks.
Eubanks has already knocked out three opponents in qualifying to make this stage, and his solid serve should give him more than a puncher's chance over Martinez at 1.748/11.
His last few defeats have been tight losses to decent opposition, of which Martinez on hard court is a slight downgrade.
Talented Kubler should be too good for Ymer
In other matches, Jason Kubler has done well at the lower Challenger Tour on hard court this year, and his better serve should also stand him in good stead against opponent Mikael Ymer. The Swedish player, Ymer, has had a couple of bad losses since he reached the Washington semi-final at the start of this month, and is still pretty inconsistent in general. I'm quite surprised to see Kubler as the pre-match underdog at 2.285/4 here.
Enigmas fight for right to face Nadal
Finally, two enigmas - Fabio Fognini and Aslan Karatsev - meet with the winner almost certainly up against Rafa Nadal in round two. Fognini has given Nadal some defeats in the past, so Nadal may well be hoping for Karatsev to progress here.
While Fognini has declined, he still has the odd high level performance in his locker, while Karatsev is nowhere near the level he was last season when he broke onto the main tour in spectacular fashion. The 2022 hard court data makes Karatsev the favourite, which is in line with market expectations.